16/02/2026
Footy's back! We're close and Arry has a ladder he reckons you should check out. Every year has a mad mover going up and some teams who drop out of the sky, who are they this year?
Predicted AFL Ladder 2026 – End of Home & Away
Brisbane sits on top again until someone actually knocks them off. Best list, best structures, and a coach who doesn’t panic when things wobble. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and probably another deep September run.
Hawthorn and Geelong, adjacent in philosophy: system first, no reliance on a single saviour. They don’t smash teams every week, but they also don’t get smashed. That consistency is why they stay top four. Geelong… honestly, until proven otherwise, they live here. Older list, but they regenerate better than anyone, turn “meh” recruits into weapons, and somehow convince stars to move to a beach town and win flags. Writing them off has been wrong for 20 years.
Adelaide feels like one of the most complete non-Brisbane team. They do lean harder on elite individuals than pure system footy, but when those individuals are that good, it’s a luxury not a flaw. If Rankine and Dawson are up, they beat anyone, especially with the Filthy man up forward and a bulletproof backline that was 2nd to only Collingwood in 2025. They were consistently the best Home and Away team last year, and I don't see them dropping off. Finals? Well, that's a different conversation.
Collingwood do slide a bit, and it hurts to say. Aging list, injuries starting to matter, and a defence that may be slightly less reliable than it was in its brilliant 2025 season. Fly’s system will still win games, but those 1–2 goal thrillers don’t always fall our way forever. I think we drop a little, but we still contend. Moore / DeGoey and Howe super important we can get healthy to support the youngsters that we will need to rotate in. (If we have to blood and support 6+ youngsters per game, we drop further for mine)
The Dogs, Freo and Gold Coast all should be higher, which is exactly why they’re not. Talent is there; consistency isn’t. Travel, coaching quirks, and game-to-game volatility keep them stuck in the 5–8 knife fight. Doggos get Bevo'd and GC / Freo have the hardest travel regime in the comp. All 3 of these sides have some of the best lists in the AFL, given the opportunity, are potential flag winners. Home and Away season though? 5-8.
That 9–12 block is where things get interesting. Saints feel like the most likely to jump, list is slowly becoming balanced instead of lopsided. GWS feel like they’ve peaked for now, Port and Sydney feel like teams in transition. Any of them could knock off a finalist, none scream “flag threat”.
Norf are improving, no question. The midfield and forward core is real now. Defence still leaks too much to climb properly, but they’re no longer automatic wins.
The bottom group? Sh*****se. Poor list management, poor retention, cultural issues, or just long rebuild hangovers. Some of these clubs will surprise for a week or two; but over 23 rounds, gravity wins. Can see Carlton winning another spoon, minor improvements from Richmond and West Coast could get them out of kitchenware territory. Essendon? More like Essendon't bother. Melbourne lost premiership stars and replaced them with risky projects.
Curious to see how wrong I was at season's end. Which of the below teams do you think I'm 'most right' or 'most wrong' about?
Smash me with your expert analysis please. And go Pies! 🖤🤍🖤🤍
