02/11/2026
Fisher’s Guide to the 2026 Melbourne Cup
Summary:
The guide you didn’t ask for but will get anyway! The CT Scans have once again ruled out the horse I had selected with Stinger Glass failing the test. Add him to Marmelo and Jan Breughal who would have walked in. The race will take a very different shape with Defiantly being ruled out. He was the natural leader and would have set a strong tempo. You can bet with confidence on a handful of picks this year at decent odds, knowing you will get value for money. Middle Earth maps to get a very soft run from barrier 1. At face value, his form looks awful but watch the last 400m of each start and you will see a green light flashing. Shockletz and Mr Monaco from the Maher stable are also very backable and in good form. Of the overseas raiders, James J Braddock, Enfjaar, and Trustyourinstinct have the right form to make their presence known. This leaves the favourite, Point of Law, as the horse who could run first or last. We’ve never seen a NH4yo have a local run before the Mel Cup. He was visually impressive in the Geelong Cup, however he raced on speed and didn’t look like there was much left at the end.
Selections:
1 – Middle Earth
2 – Trustyourinstict
3 – Jame J Braddock
4 – Hopewell Rock
Runners & Comments:
1. Sons And Lovers (Barrier 3)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle
Comment: Excellent overseas form and the handicapper has slapped him with topweight. Ran second last start to Arabian Crown who is unbeaten this season. Flown under the radar and can win this race. Drawn well to get a soft run but 57.5kg will be like dragging an anchor down the straight. He has equicast on which indicates he may have feet issues.
2. Trustyourinstinct (Barrier 18)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: James McDonald
Comment: Was given the visitors draw in barrier 18. I have concerns about this horse running a strong 3200m, however he has class that’s hard to ignore. Won the 2800m Curragh Cup and that has been a strong form reference in previous years. The sire Churchill was the fastest son of Galileo and he has sired Vadeni who was an elite middle distance horse. JMac needs to find cover and this horse has the speed to overcome a high weight. He was only 4 lengths behind Scandinavia in the Irish St Ledger. That’s A1 form! He’s the best of the internationals.
3. Knight's Choice (Barrier 2)
Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Comment: Won this race in 2024 at huge odds. Not going anywhere near as good this year and has less than 10,000m in the legs. He can run 3200m so that’s a positive. Not for me.
4. Middle Earth (Barrier 1)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Comment: This is the horse I had circled for 2025 and thought he wasn’t seasoned enough to win. He ran third and the top 3 spaced the rest of the field. He had the winter preparation in Queensland and has been building through the spring. He has run in fast run key races including the Underwood, Turnbull, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. All run in fast time and he’s been flying home every run. Might leave a lot of egg on face this Tuesday. Comes from a strong family with half brothers Buckeroo and Defiantly. Should be favourite. Best of the local chances.
5. Vauban (Barrier 22)
Trainer: G*i Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Jordan Childs
Comment: Shares for this horse were placed on Inglis Digital recently. 2.5% sold for $10k and 1% sold for $6.5k and $7k. Most expensive owners tickets I’ve seen purchased. Nup to the cup flogs would be backing this camel to break down…
6. Enfjaar (Barrier 8)
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: Ray Dawson
Comment: Brilliant run in the Caulfield Cup. He appears very progressive and has drawn a gate to have options. There are some questions marks on the distance. Defiantly being scratched probably helps this horse as he races in a forward position. He might be able to sit closer to the speed. Include him in the trifecta.
7. Royal Supremacy (Barrier 21)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Allen
Comment: Best runs have all come in races where he can dictate terms. In big fields, he seems to struggle without that midrace breather. I would love to own him but he’s not a Melbourne Cup horse.
8. W**e Dark Sea (Barrier 23)
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Jockey: Damian Lane
Comment: Another runner with Equicast on the feet. I’m guessing it’s not a good thing when you add it to concussion plates. However, he did pass the vet test so that’s a positive. I think this horse has a similar profile to Royal Supremacy. He likes to race on speed and dictate terms. This horse will transition into a 2000m WFA performer next season.
9. Asterix (Barrier 6)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Comment: Not going well enough this spring. He seems to perform well in the offseason middle distance races against lower class horses.
10. Goodie Two Shoes (Barrier 19)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Wayne Lordan
Comment: Had her chance to win this race last year carrying only 51.5kg. She now carries 55kg and experienced travel sickness earlier this season. Will wear concussion plates and she is one of the few mares who is strong enough to match the c**ts and geldings. She can run a strong 3200m so that’s a positive.
11. Juja Kibo (Barrier 14)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Comment: Juja Kibo has been a spring star winning the Metropolitan and Mooney Valley Cup. He has earned two weight penalties for those wins and that has taken him to 55kg. He can still win at that weight. However, breeding will be against him at 3200m. He will need a slowly run, sit and sprint race to be in the finish.
12. Hopewell Rock (Barrier 15)
Trainer: George Boughey
Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Comment: The Ebor Handicap runner-up where the jockey dropped the whip and cost him the win. Comes into the race in red-hot form but will need to find another career peak to win here. The trainer has previously been involved with Lloyd Williams so he knows a thing or two about training stayers. Lightly race and should be included in the top 6.
13. Onesmoothoperator (Barrier 13)
Trainer: Tim Fitzsimmons
Jockey: Declan Bates
Comment: Punters will hear ‘hee-haw’ as he runs past. Genuine donkey!
14. Soul Of Spain (Barrier 5)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Comment: This horse is that sneaky long shot who can fill a top 4 spot and ruin many trifectas and first 4s. Runs this preparation have been full of merit without winning. He may lack the class, however he has run second in the Sydney Cup so 3200m won’t be a problem. The Caulfield Cup and/or Cox Plate is the right form-line this year.
15. Zahrann (Barrier 11)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ben Melham
Comment: This was the horse I had penned early to win the Caulfield Cup this year. Funnily enough, he’s profiling more like a Melbourne Cup runner after watching the way he has worked through the line. They have turned his electric turn of foot into a real momentum building finish. I don’t know if he can run 3200m and he doesn’t have 10,000m this preparation. He might be the horse we back early at big odds for next year. If he wins, I won’t be surprised.
16. So You Are (Barrier 7)
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Can win: It’s very rare that you see a horse win 3 x G3 2400-2600m races in a preparation and still be sweating on a run in the Melbourne Cup. I’m happy he made it because he earned that spot. Bjorn can certainly train a stayer and he learned from the best in his father Murray Baker. He’s one of the horses who ticks every box – fitness, barrier, weight, jockey, trainer etc. The only negative is class. He hasn’t exactly beat anything of note. Middle Earth beat him by 4 lengths during the winter.
17. Future History (Barrier 12)
Trainer: Gregory Hickman
Jockey: Jamie Melham
Comment: One of my favourite imports who always gives 100%. He’s going really well for a 9yo but I can’t see him running top 10. The Warrior!
18. James J Braddock (Barrier 24)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Craig Williams
Comment: One of the hardest horses to line up in this field. He has elite European 3yo form, running in the English and Irish Derbies. He was a c**t earlier this year and has now been gelded. Rain today and a soft track tomorrow will significantly enhance his chances. He is class!
19. Kizlyar (Barrier 20)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien
Jockey: Beau Mertens
Comment: Ran very plainly in the Mooney Valley Cup. Stable have mentioned that he’s worked much better since that run. It may have blown out the cobwebs but he’s a horse who doesn’t possess much speed. May need another lap and a few hurdles to jump.
20. Point Of Law (Barrier 9)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Comment: The Geelong Cup winner and that race has been a very strong form reference for the Melbourne Cup. We have never seen a northern hemisphere 4yo have a start here before the cup so it’s an unknown. He has a light weight, and ideal barrier, and his breeding is impeccable. He’s still a c**t and if he can keep the mind on the job, he is the horse to beat. Is he seasoned enough to handle the occasion?
21. Strictly Business (Barrier 4)
Trainer: Thomas Carberry
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Comment: Appears to have completely lost form as a 4yo and looks a shadow of the horse who finished second in the South Australian Derby. Would need a miracle to feature in the finish.
22. Mr Monaco (Barrier 16)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Jabez Johnstone
Comment: Flying under the radar and was very strong in the Mooney Valley Cup. Carries a lightweight and loves Flemington. This horse has a sense of timing, and the Ciaron Maher stable is flying. Great each way chance.
23. Zakouma (Barrier 10)
Trainer: Grahame Begg
Jockey: William Pike
Comment: I was very quick to put a pen through this horse until I watched the replays more closely. He is now in the same category as Middle Earth where the trainer and connections have one race in mind to win. Ignore the last start, it’s a well know trick dropping back to 1600m to sharpen the horse before the cup. Do not ignore this horse as he is flying!
24. Shockletz (Barrier 17)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Comment: Shockletz has been visually impressive this preparation. Her sire Shocking won the cup and it would be a special story for a home bred by the owners to win as well. Qualified via the ballot exempt Archer Stakes and has been trained specifically for this race. Does she get enough weight relief from some very well performed and tough stayers in this race? That’s the question to be answered.
