09/03/2025
The Finals - Week 1
It's an old cliché, but the finals really are the start of a new season.
After a closely fought season where the semi final teams were not decided until the very last game played, your Final 4 teams are:
1st Moorebank
2nd UNSW
3rd GWD
4th Sydney Uni
Regular season form isn't everything.
No team knows this better than Moorebank who, after winning the Minor Premiership last season, lost the major semi final to Strikers, won the prelim against Ryde, only to lose to Strikers again in the final (in a shootout).
In the last 8 completed seasons, the Minor Premiers have only won the Final on 4 occasions.
The team that finished 2nd on the ladder has won it 3 times while just Ryde in 2017 has won it from 3rd spot.
Games this weekend.
#3 GWD v #4 Sydney Uni
12:45pm Sydney Olympic Pitch
GWD have made the finals for the first time since..., well, we can't quite remember that far back.
Sydney Uni, on the other hand, have played semis every year since..., well, we can't quite remember that either.
Both games between these two teams this year have been 1 goal victories, Sydney Uni won 1-0 back in Round 4 and GWD won 3-2 in Round 13.
G-Dubs definitely have the greater momentum coming into the finals, having 6 wins and a draw in their final 8 games of the season compared to the Students 4 wins and a draw.
But this is the semi finals, not the regular season. Will Sydney Uni's big game experience get them through?
Will an extra year of experience for GWD's young squad get them through?
Going back over the last 7 finals series where 3rd played 4th in a minor semi final (in COVID shortened 2020, 1st played 4th and 2nd played 3rd), the 3rd placed team has won this match-up only 3 times, the last time being Ryde in 2022.
#1 Moorebank v #2 UNSW
2:30pm Sydney Olympic Pitch
Who gets next weekend off and who gets the 2nd chance?
Moorebank have been clearly dominant this (undefeated) season and go into the major semi final having won both games against UNSW this year (2-1 in Round 7 and 4-1 in Round 16).
UNSW won the major semi final back in 2022 (ranked #2) and 2023 (ranked #1), on the way to winning the final in both of those years.
If you ignore UNSW's last game against GWD, both teams have a near identical defensive record.
In attack, Moorebank have scored 8 more goals over the season.
Again, going back over the last 7 seasons where the #1 team played the #2 team in the major semi, the #1 ranked team has won it 5 times.
The 2 times that the #2 team won were last year when Strikers beat Moorebank, and in 2022 when UNSW beat Sydney Uni.
On both of those occasions, the #2 team went on to win the final.
See you next week.