09/10/2024
Francine is battling dry air this evening, and that has momentarily stopped the storm from intensifying into a hurricane. We remain confident that the center of Francine will stay well offshore from our coastline as it passes us by tomorrow night, keeping impacts to a minimum for Houston and most communities away from the coast. Those are your 10PM Monday tropical headlines.
It remains to be seen how long the dry air will keep a lid on Francine's development, but because there is a mostly complete eyewall around the center, any uptick in storm activity near the center could push this into hurricane territory overnight.
Looking at the historic record, the closest storm I can find to Francine is a hurricane named Edith that took a similar track in mid September of 1971. It came within roughly 60 miles of Galveston as a strengthening category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Louisiana...and Galveston picked up less than an inch of rain. We very well may see something similar with Francine as it is expected to stay roughly 100 miles offshore from Galveston.
My general rule of thumb is that impacts rapidly decrease on the "clean side" of a hurricane once you get about 50 miles to the left of the track. That puts our coast well out of range of the most significant impacts from Francine.
While it will be business as usual for most of us here in Southeast Texas tomorrow night and Wednesday, we still want those of you along the coast to keep your guard up in case the track shifts closer to us overnight. Regardless of any track shifts, we still expect rainbands to impact our coastal communities starting in the morning along with rough seas, a minor storm surge tide, and some gusty northeast winds potentially over 50 mph to pick up tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.
I know this one is going to get uncomfortably close, but we just might manage to dodge any significant impacts. And on the topic of power outages, we think they'll be kept to a minimum and largely stay confined to brief outages along the coast.
Continue to stay weather aware with us, and we'll continue to keep you informed as needed.
abc13.com/tropicalupdate