05/03/2024
My favorite time of the year is finally here! It's Kentucky Derby Week, and I couldn't be more excited. As the temperatures continue to rise, I know that summer is just around the corner. The thrill of the horse races, the fashionable hats, and the delicious mint juleps all contribute to an unforgettable experience. Folks we all know that’s an absolute lie. What the Kentucky Derby is really about, is getting drunk and wagering slightly more money than you’re comfortable losing.
Moving right along we’ll get into the thick of it, I like #17 Fierceness. He won the Florida derby by an unbelievable 13+ lengths. One of the most impressive performances in a derby prep in recent memory. What’s the catch? Post position. Our beloved hero drew the dreaded 17pp. THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A DERBY WINNER FROM POST 17. However, I think that changes on Saturday. Fierceness is clearly the best horse in the race, if he gets a decent trip he should win it easily.
With Fierceness on top of our ticket it’s time to fill out the rest. We begin with #2 Sierra Leone, likely my top pick under different circumstances. This horse has done it all with wins at Aqueduct, Fairgrounds, and his most impressive win coming in the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland. Could very well be the best of the rest.
Moving on, things begin to get cloudy. There are probably 10 horses that could fill out the back of your trifecta ticket. One that I really like is #4 Catching Freedom. He failed in the Risen Star and was bested by Track Phantom and Sierra Leone. But, he came back with a big effort in the Louisiana derby to win it. Handicapping is all about finding horses that are improving or you think will improve in the next race. Catching Freedom fits the bill. I would not bet against arguably the best trainer in the sport Brad Cox.
#18 Stronghold, Santa Anita Derby winner. A race that has produced plenty of Kentucky Derby winners. Regardless of post position, if you give me the Santa Anita winner at 35/1 (current odds) I’m putting something on him. Do not exclude.
#19 Resilience another horse that could threaten, he won the Wood Memorial with an impressive speed figure of 104. In fact the only other horse with higher speed figs? Fierceness. So why the long odds? Bad post position, and bad record for Wood Memorial winners. No horse has won the derby after winning the Wood in over 20 years. Good horse, long odds = big payday moving on.
#8 Just A Touch, ah yes. The other Brad Cox horse. Does this guy ever run out of good horses? Seriously. The lightly raced Justify c**t lost the Bluegrass by 1 1/2 lengths, but has impressive speed figs in all three races he’s run. Feels like it’s building up to something, could it be a Kentucky Derby top 3?
#11 Forever Young, an undefeated 5-0 horse in a decent post position. Plus it’s Japanese which rules. What’s not to love right? Wrong, a UAE derby horse has never won the derby and I don’t think it will happen this year. Can he sneak into the back of an exotic ticket? Yes, and that’s why I’ve listed him here
#6 Just Steel, another Justify c**t trained by the legendary Wayne Lukas who has won the second most Kentucky Derby races in history. One thing I’ve learned about Mr. Lukas is you never leave him off your ticket!
Have fun, be safe, and win some money!