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Dapper Dan Picks provides college football analysis for handicappers. See google spreadsheet link fo

10/31/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
2026 YTD Results: 40-32 (+2.98 units)

No writeups. Between my work schedule now and being a full time dad for my 3 year old. No time for writeups but I will for the bowl games. This Ai s**t is changing the game. I can pull stats and compare and analyze games in 1/10th of the time I could in years past. For years I pulled specific stats from certain websites myself and input them to spreadsheets - leading to hours of extra work but I enjoyed it but now I just have AI do it all for me in under 5 minutes. What a time to be alive.

Week 9 Adds:
Arizona +4.5 (-112)
Iowa ML (-128)
California +10 (-120)
UAB vs USF Under 42.5 (-114)
Auburn +11.5 (-110)
Nebraska -7 (-125)
Oklahoma State/Iowa State Over 57.5 (-112)

10/30/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8 Results: 5-2 (+2.69 units)
2026 YTD Results: 39-32 (+1.98 units)

Week 9:
Baylor ML (-115)

10/24/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
2026 YTD Results: 35-30 (+0.29 units)

Week 8 Adds:
T.Tech/Cinn Over 56.5 (-114)
Vtech +3 (-125)
Rutgers +16.5 (-113)
North Texas ML (-155)
Miss. State +2.5 (-118)
Wisconsin +3 (-115)

Vtech +3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
My favorite play of the weekend - although I’m sticking with 1 unit bets this week. The biggest edge is in the trenches - and Clemson has really struggled at protecting their QB - ranking 108th in sack rate %, 134th in havoc rate % allowed, and 132nd in TFL rate allowed. This is where VTECH is elite this year with James Franklin and Brent Pry reunited (from Penn State) on defense where they consistently lead defensive power houses - they rank 10th in sack rate %, 2nd in havoc rate and 2nd in TFL rate. They should cause disruption all day and the only reason this isnt a 2 unit play is due to the SOS discrepancy - with Clemson’s being a bit stronger to date.

T.Tech/Cinn Over 56.5 (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units
We have two team with very high pace of play - ranking and . We have a Cinn. defense that has been horrible all season, and an effect T.Tech offense. T. Tech’s defense sports some good numbers but their SOS is very weak to date - they will be tested for the first time against a Cincinnati offense that has proven they can run the ball - ranking 8th in yards per carry at 5.9 ypc. Both offenses have good FEI and efficiency numbers - the weather should be a nice cool 12 pm kickoff without any issues effecting this over that should be a track meet.

Rutgers +16.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points - granted Rutgers defense has been awful - but mostly in coverage - which NW does not throw the ball often - ranking 124th in throwing %. Even though the numbers show strong advantages for NW, I think they’ve played a MUCH easier schedule then Rutgers - although most of my usual SOS indicators don’t agree. Strange indeed but I think Rutgers defense finally shows up and gives a fight at the line of scrimmage as Schiano’s defense’s historically have.

Wisconsin +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I love me a good strong defensive edge with some points! We have a huge advantage on defense as Wisconsin ranks overall in PFF, 3rd in coverage, 11th in run defense, 10th in tackling and 2nd in special teams. USC in contrast, ranks 78th in PFF on defense, 111th in coverage, 77th in run defense, 113th in tackling and 54th in special teams…..I love the coaching staff at Wisconsin and think the stronger defense wins this one.

10/23/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7 Results: 5-4 (+0.53 units)
2026 YTD Results: 34-30 (-0.71 units)

Lets Win. More to come tomorrow morning - around 11 am

Week 8:
Duke +2.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
I love the coaching edge first of all - with Manny Diaz and his team slightly edging out Tony Elliot and his crew in my grading system. They faced off twice last year, and although Vtech won the first one 34-17, Manny and his team made adjustments in the 2nd matchup and won 27-20. Manny’s speciality is pressure, havoc, and TFL’s. Virginia’s offense has struggled ranking 57th in havoc rate allowed, 100th in TFL allowed, and 130th in sack rate %. Duke's defense should bring havoc and rack up some TFLs. Virginia has also struggled to run the ball - averaging 3.6 ypc and Duke has been stout against the run ranking 41st allowing 3.7 ypc. Duke’s been averaging 5 ypc on offense and UVA been allowing 4.4 ypc - so Duke should own the trenches in this one and buy the hook to 3 if you can with your bookie.

Week 7:
Washington +4 (-120) W
Missouri +5.5 (-110) L
FAU +2.5 (-112 L
Ohio State -2.5 (-130) W
Pittsburgh -5.5 (-115) L
ULM/LA tech over 56 (-110) L
Penn State/Mich Under 42.5 (-110) W
Nebraska +7 (-118) W
SMU -8.5 (-118) W

10/17/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
2026 YTD Results: 30-26 (-0.24 units)

Week 7 Adds:
Missouri +5.5 (-110)
FAU +2.5 (-112
Ohio State -2.5 (-130)
Pittsburgh -5.5 (-115)
ULM/LA tech over 56 (-110)
Penn State/Mich Under 42.5 (-110)
Nebraska +7 (-118)
SMU -8.5 (-118)

Sorry I got too busy to finish writeups. Do people even read anymore anyways? lol

Ohio State -2.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
I don’t understand this line based on the numbers. Indiana last year caught a lot of teams off guard but new QB Josh Hoover is no Fernando Mendoza. His stats over his long career are mediocre at best, he has great stats this season - but thats against one of the softest cupcake strength of schedules in the big 10 ranking 126th in SOS. Ohio State in contrast has returning hesiman finalist - Julian Sayin as well as the 38th most difficult schedule to date. This is a revenge game from the National championship game last year where Indiana won by 3.

Pittsburgh -5.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Pitt should DOMINATE the trenches as Boston College has really struggled at protecting their QB ranking in sack rate allowed, 132nd in havoc rate % and 132nd in TFL % - this plays directly into Narduzzi’s strengths who ranks 37th in havoc rate, 29th in TFL rate %, and 54 in sack rate. Also on 3rd downs BC does not know wtf to do and rank on offense and 135th in RZ scoring % while Narduzzi, a defensive guru know exactly what plays to call in clutch 3rd downs and ranks in 3rd down conversion and in RZ scoring %.

Missouri +5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
They have strong advantages on both sides of the ball in every statistical category that I look at and are underdogs? Yes Please

ULM/LA tech over 56 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Penn State/Mich Under 42.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
FAU +2.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Nebraska +7 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units
SMU -8.5 (-118) Risking 1.18 units to win 1 units

10/16/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 6 Results: 6-3 (+1.12 units)
2026 YTD Results: 29-26 (-1.24 units)

Completely dialed in. Lets win. More to come tomorrow

Week 7:
Washington +4 (-120)

Week 7:
Washington +4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
I love to start with a nice coaching edge, Jedd Fisch calling plays and Ryan Walters on defense for Washington - in their 3rd year - is a big advantage over Josh Henson and Kevin Kane - who are in their 2nd year for Purdue. Last year when they faced off with the exact same coaching staffs - Washington smashed them 49-13. Wildly enough - as the coaching and carousels and transfer portals continue to increase - it just so happens Ryan Walters was the head coach of Purdue back in 2024 and his DC was Kevin Kane. Walters was fired in Dec. 2024 after the season and I bet he’s looking for revenge. Washington also has significant statistical advantages on offense as Purdue is one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 110th in red zone score %, 126th in yards per play, 122nd in sack rate, in points per play. Washington on defense in contrast has a stronger ranking differential in certain categories - most important rush yards per carry where Purdue's offense ranks an Washington is .

Week 6:
FSU/Louisville Over 59.5 (-110) W
Wake Forest ML (-162) W
Arizona/WVU over 60.5 (-110) W
Duke - 6 (-120) 2 units L
Umass +5 (-105) W
UCLA +10.5 (-104) W
Houston +3 (-120) W
Tennessee -13.5 (-108) L
Minnesota ML (-140) L

10/10/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
2026 YTD Results: 24-23 (-1.36 units)

Week 6 Friday Night:
FSU/Louisville Over 59.5 (-110) W

Ok so these are going to be real short writeups (actually most will have none bc I want to get these out early) also because of I was unable to work on them much this week (and focused on the numbers) and although this family emergency was extreme, it resulted in me getting temporary custody of my daughter so - its tough to manage all my priorities - and my daughter keeping me busy this morning, but next week I will be starting all of the college football handicapping earlier in the weeks, we will have a lot more stats to pull from.

Week 6 adds:
Wake Forest ML (-162)
Arizona/WVU over 60.5 (-110)
Duke - 6 (-120) 2 units
Umass +5 (-105)
UCLA +10.5 (-104)
Houston +3 (-120)
Tennessee -13.5 (-108)
Minnesota ML (-140)

Week 6:
Duke - 6 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Duke has a huge edge at every stat category that I use to handicap and is all (GREEN) favoring their offense over Gtech defense especially in categories like yards per pass - where Duke ranks #43 and Gtech defense ranks #107; yards per carry where Duke ranks #16 and Gtechs defense ranks #90 in yards per rush allowed. Duke’s defense is all (RED) favoring their defense over Gtech’s offense - especially categories like yards per rush - where Gtech ranks #110, and Duke’s ranks in yards per rush allowed; 3rd down conv % - where Gtechs offense ranks 105th and Duke ranks 8th; and Havoc rate and TFL where Gtech’s offense ranks #101 and #102 and Dukes defense ranks and . The largest mismatches on the board so this will be my 2 unit play for the week.

Umass +5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Umass has taken the world by surprise going 4-1 and Miami (OH) has taken a step back going 2-3. The stats also agree - especially in PFF where Umass has strong advantages on both sides of the ball including the pass game - where their new QB has been amazing and they rank in PFF (Pass + Rec) and Miami (OH)’s defense ranks in coverage! There also another TRIPLE DIGIT DIFFERENTIAL for Umass’s defense in the run game - as Miami (OH) ranks 118th in PFF in (rush + run block) and Umass ranks - leaving a 103 rank differential. I haven’t watched much of both of these teams but the numbers show the wrong team is favored.

10/09/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 5 Results: (5-4 +0.08 units)
2026 YTD Results: 23-23 (-2.36 units)

Week 6:
Good news - my family emergency was officially resolved yesterday. Unfortunately I have been missing work and sick as well so I don’t have time for tonight's games writeups. I intend to add a few games tomorrow and some write-ups for them

Week 6 Friday Night:
FSU/Louisville Over 59.5 (-110)

Week 5:
Alabama/Miss State Over 60.5 (-110) W
Florida -5.5 (-108) L
Auburn +6.5 (-108) L
Nebraska -14.5 (-110) W
Purdue/Illinois Over 62 (-106) L
OregonState/Colorado State over 60.5 (-127) W
BYU -5.5 (-110) W
Arizona State ML (-170) L
Arizona -6.5 (-114) W

10/03/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 5 Results: (5-4 +0.35 units)
2026 YTD Results: 18-19 (-2.44 units)

Unfortunately I had a family emergency this week and don’t have time to writeups. I had limited time to look into all the games but I am comfortable wagering myself on these. Tail at your own risk or fade.

Week 5:
Alabama/Miss State Over 60.5 (-110)
Florida -5.5 (-108)
Auburn +6.5 (-108)
Nebraska -14.5 (-110)
Purdue/Illinois Over 62 (-106)
OregonState/Colorado State over 60.5 (-127)
BYU -5.5 (-110)
Arizona State ML (-170)
Arizona -6.5 (-114)

Week 4:
California +2.5 (-110) L
Iowa +5.5 (-105) W
SD State/Toledo Over 51 (-105) W
UCLA ML (-113) W
Iowa State +7.5 (-105) L
Oklahoma/Georgia Under 45.5 (-127) L
Cincinnati +6.5 (-18) W
West Virginia ML (-123) L
Okl. State/WVU Over 60 (-110) W

09/26/2026

Dapper Dan Picks:
Got held up late last night and I'm heading to the zoo with my daughter this morning before the games so I had to cut the writeups short - lots of questions still and stats that don’t hold much weight being padded against crappy teams. with the season so early but lots of great matchups.

Week 4 adds:
SD State/Toledo Over 51 (-105)
UCLA ML (-113)
Iowa State +7.5 (-105)
Oklahoma/Georgia Under 45.5 (-127)
Cincinnati +6.5 (-18)
West Virginia ML (-123)
Okl. State/WVU Over 60 (-110)

SD State/Toledo Over 51 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
These two teams combine for the highest pace of play matchup for this week with Toledo ranking 3rd and SD State in the Top 25 and has sped up the offense this year from 27.7 seconds per play to 24 seconds per play. Toledo pretty much always throws the ball and has been very efficient at it and should carve up this SD State defense that has struggled against the pass - they rank 96th in opponent completion %, and 91st in yards per pass. Toledo’s offense has been one of the most explosive teams with a 1.63 rating (1 is average) and they should put up some big plays against an average SD State defense. SD State prefers to run and Toledo has not defended it well ranking 71st in ypp allowed and they have given up 39 points per game. This should be perfect weather conditions and I like this game to sail over the total.

UCLA ML (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
This line baffles me but I guess I am UCLA biased this year and have bet on them pretty often. The other big factor in this game is the weather, with a northeastern blowing in and 70% chance of rain - this plays directly in favor to UCLA who is a run first team, running the ball 60% of the time and ranking 1st with 7 yards per carry. Maryland D has been stout against the run but against Vtech and Uconn? Maryland is a throw first team - ranking #9 in the nation at 61% - and most of their stats should be taken with a grain of salt considering their SOS to date. UCLA has faced a respectable Cal, SD State and Purdue. They have been knowing how to move the sticks ranking 6th in 3rd down conv % but despite Marylands awful schedule - they have struggled defending 3rd downs ranking 107th on defense. I really like this new coaching staff at UCLA who migrated from James Madison and rebuilt 3 programs together, if they can lead this UCLA team to the playoffs it will be quite the “from the bottom to the top” coaching ascension. On the other side Locksley is on the hot seat and just replaced his OC in hopes of improving things but Malik Washington has never impressed me despite his good stats so far this season. UCLA pulls out a win in the 2nd half.

Cincinnati +6.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Cincinnati has a secret weapon the general public doesn't know about, they hired the DC from Army, Nate Woody, who coincidently drew up a great game plan last year to contain Avery Johnson and beat Woody at Kansas State with an inferior Army team 24-21. This Kansas State defense is not the same since losing their DC Klanderman who was their for 5 years prior.

Iowa State +7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’m seeing a lot of Utah love so this is setting up as a nice contrarian play. Utah hasn’t really faced any tough teams this year (Arkansas is a joke) while Iowa State kept it close with Iowa and got no love for.

West Virginia ML (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
WVU/Oklahoma State Over 60 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Oklahoma/Georgia Under 45.5 (-127)
Neither of these offenses have faced a defense like they are about to face off against. This should be a great low scoring game.

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