08/25/2026
Joe Burrow put up a PFF 91.8 grade in 2025 — and my 2026 QB model ranked him 26th out of 32. Not because he’s not elite. Because he played eight games. Missing time doesn’t just cost you the games. Your rate stats — EPA per dropback, CPOE, success rate — never gather enough of a sample to count, so the model floors them. That’s more than half the production score erased. He gets charged twice for one injury. That’s the availability tax, and it’s exactly how front offices think about paying you.
Full 32-QB breakdown + where I overrule my own model is on my Substack (link in bio).