06/29/2026
The Union Leader ran my op-ed about NH's First in the National Presidnetial Primary today!
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Our "First in the Nation" Presidential Primary is a great tradition and I agree that it should continue.Nothing is 100% certain these days, but we can be about 99.9999% certain that there will be a New Hampshire Presidential Primary in early 2028. Thanks to a state law first passed in 1979 and last revised in 2010, our presidential primary must be at least 7 days earlier than any other state’s primary. (I was a member of the House Election Law Committee in 2009-2010, during my first term as a state representative.)
However, New Hampshire Democrats like myself cannot be 100% certain that the New Hampshire delegation chosen in early 2028 will be allowed to vote a few months later at the 2028 national convention. The national party is currently drawing up an elaborate plan for choosing delegates to that convention, even though one candidate will inevitably emerge as the presumptive nominee months before the convention actually happens, and he or she will be nominated unanimously. One of the elements of this plan is setting a schedule for the primaries and caucuses. In theory, a state party which doesn’t follow the schedule can be punished by not having its delegates seated.
In 2024, the presumptive nominee, President Joe Biden, dropped out shortly before the convention, right after a very weak debate performance. The delegates met as scheduled and voted unanimously for Vice President Kamala Harris. I am sure the Republicans could do the same thing at a future national convention if their presumptive nominee ever dropped out, although right now it is hard to imagine any Republican nominee doing such a thing. The GOP has nominated Donald Trump three cycles in a row, who has proven countless times that he can say and do literally anything while still being supported by his party. (But, of course Trump is Trump, whereas any future nominee will not be Trump and will therefore be held to a different and presumably higher standard.)
The Granite State is the perfect place to kick off a Presidential campaign cycle. New Hampshire is a small but conveniently located state populated by very smart and somewhat eccentric people who take their politics seriously and are not afraid to ask tough questions. No state offers a wider variety of scenic backdrops for campaign photo-ops: we have oceans, mountains, rivers, village greens, old white-painted houses, town halls, fall foliage, winter snow storms, etc. You name it, we got it. Our state is an advance-man (or advance-woman’s) paradise. And, we make the world’s greatest maple syrup, and we encourage visiting Presidential candidates to eat lots of the stuff.
The last three election cycles have not been good for the FITN tradition.
On the Republican side, the (in my opinion) worst President ever, Donald J. Trump won three FITN Primaries since 2016, which is not to our state's credit, although he lost all three of the following November general elections, which is an extenuating circumstance. He has visited the Granite State occasionally during campaign season to do his standup rally routine, but otherwise he has refused to play the traditional "FITN" game. He has never answered a single tough question from a voter. He has never consumed so much as a drop of maple syrup.
In 2016, our neighbor Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, but she basically trounced him in every other state aside from Vermont. In the years leading up to 2020, we Democrats were entertained by a large and lively field of Democratic hopefuls, most of whom dropped out of the race long before we actually voted. Joe Biden finished a distant 5th in our February 11, 2020 primary, but he emerged as the presumptive nominee a few weeks later in mid-March. On January 23, 2024, President Biden won our primary by an unprecedented landslide, even though he wasn't actually on the ballot. The “Write-In Biden” campaign’s winning percentage wasn’t the highest ever, but it was the highest winning percentage ever for a campaign which had serious opposition. (Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips are not exactly political superstars, but they were both serious candidates. They were both infinitely more qualified to be President than the guy who ended up winning in both November 2016 and November 2024.)
Looking ahead, as a Granite Stater, I hope we have another "FITN" in early 2028. I have already enjoyed meeting one of the potential candidates in a small-group setting in a good friend’s living room. I enjoyed hearing him answer some tough questions. There was no maple syrup, but the snacks were still yummy. I am looking forward to visiting more living rooms between now and January or February 2028, eating more snacks, and hearing more answers to more tough questions.
As an American, I just hope we have an election in November 2028.
