10/22/2026
I get asked, “what does your scouting report look like?”
If I was a pro pitching coach right now, here is how it would look.
They hunt fastballs. Make them chase changeups.
I broke down all 1,220 pitches the Brewers have seen this postseason and built the plan a pitching coach would hand the Rays’ staff for seven games.
📊 What the data says:
➡️ .360 xwOBA vs fastballs, but just .263 vs offspeed
➡️ Opponents have thrown them a changeup or splitter only 13% of the time
➡️ Two-strike counts: .241 wOBA. Three-ball counts: .567
➡️ 44 of 69 full-count pitches were fastballs, and 3 left the yard
➡️ Down and away: 45.7% whiff rate. Middle-middle: .624 xwOBA and 4 of their 10 homers
The Rays throw a changeup on 26% of pitches, and it saved +37 runs this season, more than double any other staff. The plan writes itself: get ahead, go soft, never give in at 3-2.
Inside: the book on every Brewer, zone heat maps, a full matchup board vs every Rays arm, and who should face Yelich, Contreras and Chourio when it matters.
What can we expect? Limited fastball usage. Increased changeup usage in earlier games of series. Rays will hammer the edges the best they can.
➡️ Strikes often and early. Brewers BATTLE to 3 ball counts so they can CRUSH fastballs in fastball counts. Don’t let them.
Full report at the cnpitching.com 🔗
