17/05/2020
THE FENCE PARADOX: AN ILLUSION OF SAFETY*
A few pointers if someone wants to workout and stay fit:
• Avoid enclosed places with very large crowds particularly if they are not wearing any masks
Most superspreader event(s) happens in highly enclosed places with too many people roaming around; strong signs of crowded places are noisy places. And this factor will somehow exacerbate transmission since they will have to speak louder in order for them to be heard.
• Wear your mask
There are tons of resources going around online that tells us that one should not wear a mask when exercising. It has its logic but it also has an underlying dangers as well. This confusion stems from misassessment on the difference between what is "risk" vs. "ruin" and "risk exposure" from "serial risk exposure".
Wearing a mask while exercising may induce breathing difficulty which is a risk that might lead someone to collapse. But if you are not going to wear your mask while exercising outdoors with a few people seen exercising, it will increase your likelihood/probability of getting the disease and with a possibility of causing permanent/irreversible damage(s). The latter is highly dependent & sensitive to external environment since we do not have control if someone will cough/sneeze. If going outdoors can be avoided, exercising indoors is still a better option.
And besides, one shouldn't be exercising/training at maximum unless if you are a professional competing for the Olympics or there is a risk that a brand will cut your endorsements. There is no near utility in sight since most large gatherings like sporting events (e.g. races, tournaments, leagues...etc.) will be most likely cancelled.
• Choose outdoors
Fresh air, properly ventilated, large spaces therefore one can maximize physical distancing. Those divisions in the video is nothing but pure cosmetic science. Masking the dangers so money can come-in.
• Consult your physician
Ask your doctor if you are conditioned enough to do physical work and if you need to sustain it with greater regularity. The entire purpose of getting fit is to take the upside of physical health so one can increase their immunity to diseases.
—
"First thoughts on Superspreader events"
Chen Shen and Yaneer Bar-Yam, First thoughts on Superspreader events, New England Complex Systems Institute (February 28, 2020).
NECSI -->> https://necsi.edu/first-thoughts-on-superspreader-events?rq=superspreader
PDF -->>https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e6a4b92b731ca28b365a41f/1584024466922/Superspreader+Events.pdf
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"The Fence Paradox in medicine: the third kind of iatrogenics"
By Pasquale Cirillo
https://www.luca-dellanna.com/fence-paradox-medicine/
PDF -->>http://www.pasqualecirillo.eu/resources/fence_paradox.pdf
* The Fence Paradox: the more we try to make a "thing" safer (under some perceived notion on making it "risk-free"), the more riskier it becomes due to overconfidence bias.
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Key ideas: the fence paradox, risk management, risk vs. ruin, exposure vs. serial exposure
