20/06/2026
During El Niño, those trade winds weaken. The warm water spreads eastward across the Pacific instead of staying concentrated in the west. This changes where heat and moisture enter the atmosphere.
Here's what happens:
1. Less Warm Water Near PNG
When warm water moves away from the western Pacific:
Less water evaporates.
Fewer rain clouds form.
Rainfall decreases.
This is why Papua New Guinea can experience:
Drought
Water shortages
Crop failures
Increased risk of bushfires
2. More Heat Released Elsewhere
The warmer waters in the central and eastern Pacific heat the atmosphere there instead. This can cause:
Heavy rain and flooding in parts of the Americas
Changes in storm tracks
Unusual weather patterns around the world
3. The Atmosphere Works Like a Connected System
Imagine a huge conveyor belt of air moving around the Pacific. When the warm water shifts, the rising and sinking air shifts too. Areas that normally receive rain may become dry, while normally dry areas may receive excessive rain.
A Simple Illustration
Think of a pot of water on a stove:
The ocean is the water.
The sun is the stove.
The atmosphere is the steam above the pot.
When the hottest part of the water moves to a different side of the pot, the steam rises from a different location. In the same way, when warm Pacific waters move, clouds, winds, and rainfall patterns move too.
