12/20/2020
Near misses and close-calls are the huge iceberg below the surface where all the future errors are occurring, but unfortunately we know little about them, because most of us are unwilling to discuss or report them.
Maud Vanpoulle, an alpinist and sports-scientist focused on accidentology, has been the lead researcher in a project that collects such reports through the camptocamp.org SERAC database. It is anonymous, and available in multiple languages.
Maud has just published the most recent analysis - link below. The focus this time is on ski-mountaineering, but the lessons very much apply to alpinism.
In the findings she describes some of the most common human factors at the heart of risk. These include: searching for "reassuring factors" instead of keeping an open mind; falling prey of “summit fever”, of the “sunk cost fallacy” and “consistency bias”, finding it easier to keep going rather than questioning ourselves; thinking that haste and speed ensure our safety, when in fact they can often be counter-productive; and when in groups ignoring our intuitions, falling for consensus bias, and social acceptance.
Accidents tend to happen as a result of a funnel dynamic, a cascade of small non-events that push us into a corner where a "spark" triggers disaster.
In the end of the analysis Maud includes a list of valuable suggestions, including: keeping an eye on unfavorable factors; playing devil's advocate; identifying our biases, and trying to question them; in groups puting emphasis on open, honest communication; being prepared to be unprepared; and lastly choosing objectives with many options.
Consider sharing your close-calls and near-misses on the camptocamp.org database, and online using the hashtag.
Link to the full analysis https://www.petzl.com/fondation/SERAC-analysis-skitouring_EN.pdf?v=1 (pdf download).
Stunning photo of Cerro Piergiorgio, Pollone and Fitzroy by Blake DeBock www.blakedebock.com