26/11/2022
A completely different approach to analyzing football matches...
All predictive mathematical models that I know of in the field of predicting the final outcome of football matches are based on the parity between the goals scored and the goals conceded by the two teams...
I bring to your attention another analytical approach, namely the use of past team statistics to try to predict the development of the future match.
How to make the working scheme you see in the picture we have already mentioned before and I will not repeat myself, here in this post I will emphasize this new method of analysis, the principle of which is: the arithmetic mean probability is treated as a % probability of the total statistics of the two the team.
In particular, to get the % probability of the home team winning we use the formula: =AVERAGE(A7:B7,D9:E9)/SUM(A7:B9,D7:E9)
For the probability of realization of 1X, respectively, the formula:
=AVERAGE(A7:B8,D8:E9)/SUM(A7:B9,D7:E9)
For the realization of a possible tie:
=AVERAGE(A8:B8,D8:E8)/SUM(A7:B9,D7:E9)
For the realization of the probability X2:
=AVERAGE(D7:E8,A8:B9)/SUM(A7:B9,D7:E9)
And for the possible victory of the guest, the formula is used:
=AVERAGE(D7:E7,A9:B9)/SUM(A7:B9,D7:E9)
The advantage of my proposed analysis method is that the probability of realization of 1X and X2 is also determined, which is valuable in my opinion...?
Since it results in low %'s with a little math knowledge you can make them parity at 100% probability, but that's not the subject of this post...
Good luck…and remember nothing is absolute and things are mostly for fun and waste of time…!!!