07/09/2026
Are you just waiting to be able to say…
“See! I told you my horse would get hurt doing that.”
Because sometimes I wonder whether we become so convinced that something bad is going to happen that we spend all our time waiting for the evidence that proves us right.
You turn your horse out with another horse and spend the next week looking for injuries.
You let them walk through mud and watch every step waiting for them to slip.
You let them navigate uneven ground and wait for them to trip.
You allow them to play in the paddock and immediately think, “Someone is going to get hurt.”
You ride past something scary and think, “They’re going to spook.”
You try something new and think, “This is going to end badly.”
Then eventually something happens.
Maybe they get a scratch.
Maybe they slip.
Maybe they trip.
Maybe they spook.
Maybe they have a disagreement with their paddock mate.
And there it is:
“SEE! I KNEW IT!”
But did you actually prove yourself right?
Or were you simply waiting long enough for a completely normal horse thing to happen?
If I tell you that your horse is eventually going to get another scratch, I will probably be right.
Not because I predicted the future.
Because you own a HORSE.
At some point they will probably get another scratch.
They will probably stumble again.
They will probably spook again.
They will probably have another silly paddock moment.
They will probably misjudge something.
They will probably make another decision that makes you wonder how an animal with four legs can possibly be so uncoordinated.
That doesn’t mean the activity was inherently dangerous.
It means horses are living, moving animals.
And this is where we have to be really careful about confirmation bias.
When we are convinced something is dangerous, we notice every little thing that supports that belief.
But we often completely ignore the hundreds of times nothing happened.
Your horse walked through that muddy gateway 100 times without a problem.
Then they slipped once.
“SEE! I knew that was dangerous!”
What about the other 100 times?
Your horses lived together peacefully for six months and one day somebody came in with a little bite mark.
“SEE! I knew they would hurt each other!”
What about the six months of companionship, movement, play and social interaction?
Your horse navigated uneven paddocks every day and eventually came in with a scratch.
“SEE! That paddock is dangerous!”
Or…
Your horse is a horse.
There is another part of this that I think we need to talk about too.
When you are absolutely convinced something is going to go wrong, you can start contributing to the situation you are afraid of.
Not because your thoughts magically create injuries.
But because your expectations change your behaviour.
You tense your body.
You hold your breath.
You grab the reins.
You interfere.
You micromanage every step.
You hesitate.
You stop allowing your horse to think.
You communicate to your horse that there is something here they should be worried about.
And then your horse becomes worried.
They become tense.
They stop thinking clearly.
They react.
And suddenly you’re saying:
“I KNEW they were going to do that!”
But sometimes we need to ask ourselves a harder question:
Did I give my horse the opportunity to succeed, or was I riding/handling them waiting for them to fail?
Because horses need experience.
They need to learn where their feet are.
They need to learn how to navigate different surfaces.
They need appropriate social experiences.
They need to encounter new things.
They need to make little mistakes.
They need opportunities to problem-solve.
They need us to guide them without constantly communicating:
“CAREFUL. CAREFUL. CAREFUL. SOMETHING BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN.”
Of course there are genuine risks we should avoid.
There are unsafe situations.
There are injuries that need veterinary attention.
There are horses that shouldn't be put into certain situations.
Good horsemanship is never about ignoring genuine danger.
But there is a massive difference between assessing a real risk and spending your entire life with your horse waiting for something to go wrong.
And if you spend enough time waiting to say, “See, I told you so,” eventually something WILL happen that allows you to say it.
The question is whether it actually proves what you think it proves.
Maybe instead of counting every scratch, trip, spook and mistake as evidence that your horse needs to be protected from life…
Start noticing all the times they handled life perfectly well.
Notice the hundreds of successful steps before the stumble.
Notice the months of peaceful turnout before the scratch.
Notice the scary objects they walked past without reacting.
Notice the situations they worked out for themselves.
Notice how capable your horse actually is when you give them the opportunity to be.
Because if you're always waiting for your horse to fail…
you might completely miss just how often they're succeeding. 🐴