24/11/2025
⚠️Right, so you all saw the supercell with 8cm hail smash a long damage path last night... Well even bigger more frequent storms are forecast this afternoon and this evening for SEQLD & NENSW!
🔴A surface trough will inject a very hot and humid Westerly airmass along the ranges onto the coast initially during the day. A South Easterly wind change will move North along the NENSW coast as a North Easterly afternoon Sea Breeze front develops which will create a triple point wind convergence. This triple point wind convergence progresses Northwards into SEQLD during the afternoon.
🔴A warm air inversion (CAP) in the low levels will suppress or lid most storm development until midday with break thresholds likely to be achieved from 12pm onwards - especially in NENSW first then into SEQLD. (NOTE: Extreme mid level instability is generating a few high based morning storms in NENSW). Wind shear both speed and directional thresholds through the low to mid levels support the development of mesocyclones (Supercells).
🔴Rapid severe storm development is expected through inland / range areas of NENSW and SEQLD at first with nuclear type cells producing large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall in their early stages. A number of these cells will intensify further onto the coastal plain to become Super-cellular producing Giant Hail up to 10cms, Destructive Winds up to 150km/h & Very Intense Rainfall. Storm activity will track North East with some cells tracking in a more Northerly direction riding the wind boundary / triple point. Conditions are generally unfavourable for any tornadoes however one or two can't be completely ruled out being attached to a meso.
🔴So from Grafton to Maryborough including the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Ipswich, Logan, Moreton, Hinterland & Valleys, Ranges and possibly just west of the ranges ARE ALL "AREAS" AT RISK. Not everyone will get hit, but you might! That’s the way it rolls…
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