A Beautiful Numbers Game

A Beautiful Numbers Game Statistically Informed Soccer Writing A Six Sigma Black Belt trained lover of soccer takes on the beautiful game in a numerical manner.

Seeking hidden trends and statistics behind the artistry on display each week.

I spoke with Brian Straus about his proposal for adopting a group play format in the MLS Playoffs, and then put it to th...
11/29/2013

I spoke with Brian Straus about his proposal for adopting a group play format in the MLS Playoffs, and then put it to the statistical test via Matthias Kullowatz's MLS-specific predictive model. Click on the link to view the results.

The MLS Cup final is now set. Sporting Kansas City will host Real Salt Lake in a week's time to crown the 2013 MLS champion. While this season’s playoff tournament may have turned out for the better in regards to top seeds showing up in the final, there are still [...]

We're a quarter of the way through the Premier League season. Here's where each of the club's stand relative to title, C...
11/22/2013

We're a quarter of the way through the Premier League season. Here's where each of the club's stand relative to title, Champions League, and relegation likelihoods.

The final international break of 2013 is now over, and the Premier League is just past the quarter season mark. Everyone has a better idea of who might be relegation fodder (Crystal Palace), and who might be off to an unexpectedly good start (Arsenal). Now is when the season pivots [...]

Here's my Forbes latest that focuses on the Mexican national team, and quantifies their struggles in 2013.
11/21/2013

Here's my Forbes latest that focuses on the Mexican national team, and quantifies their struggles in 2013.

This year’s Hex was to be a continuation of a growing series of successes for the Mexican men's national team reaching back to the last World Cup. They won the Gold Cup and U-17 World Cup in 2011, finished third in the 2011 U-20 World Cup, went undefeated on the [...]

Here was a look at the Sounders' shots taken/conceded from a few weeks ago. Appropriate given they face a playoff elimi...
11/07/2013

Here was a look at the Sounders' shots taken/conceded from a few weeks ago. Appropriate given they face a playoff elimination match tonight against the Timbers.

The Seattle Sounders’ fifth regular season of MLS play came to a fitting end Sunday night against the Galaxy. Early frustrations in front of goal appeared they might give way to another loss or draw, while the crowd’s collective spirits were raised in the 30th minute via Clint Dempsey’s first [...]

A loss for the Sounders, and a win for the Timbers. The Union stumble against DC United. Only two weeks remaining in t...
10/16/2013

A loss for the Sounders, and a win for the Timbers. The Union stumble against DC United. Only two weeks remaining in the MLS regular season. Where does each team stand related to the Supporters' Shield and playoff qualification/position? Click on the link below to read more.

An already wild MLS season that saw the league’s worst team win the hundredth incarnation of the US Open Cup just keeps getting wilder. The results of the last week have seen a team that will likely miss the MLS Cup playoffs win the hotly contested Cascadia Cup with only [...]

Another week of MLS action means another update to the MLS EI forecast for playoff positions and the Supporters' Shield....
10/09/2013

Another week of MLS action means another update to the MLS EI forecast for playoff positions and the Supporters' Shield. What effect did the Sounders' 5-1 playoff loss have on their likelihood of finishing top of the table? Who's in and who's out of the current playoff picture? Click on the link to read the answers to those questions and more ahead of Wednesday night's pivotal MLS action.

Last weekend’s results left much to be settled in the Supporters’ Shield race, but they did further solidify things in the conference playoff races. Seattle’s 5-1 loss to Colorado may have served notice that the Rapids may make things difficult for the rest of the West come playoff time, but [...]

Updated MLS playoff likelihoods.
10/05/2013

Updated MLS playoff likelihoods.

It was another week of MLS action with a number of important results. A few teams who had to win at home to keep their flagging playoff hopes alive didn’t– Chicago, New England, Vancouver, Dallas – while a few teams picked up vital points on the road – Real Salt [...]

In 2012/13 Newcastle United did the expected and regressed to the mean that their 2011/12 goal differential should have ...
09/30/2013

In 2012/13 Newcastle United did the expected and regressed to the mean that their 2011/12 goal differential should have produced. Last year United and Spurs were the two clubs that most outperformed their goal differentials, so who is the most likely to regress this season and what has the play through the first six matches told us about both teams?

Last season Newcastle United completed one of the worst season-to-season point total drops in the history of the Premier League. The Toon finished the 2011/12 season in fifth place with 65 points from a +5 goal difference, which meant they were going to have make a number of changes in [...]

My latest examining goal scoring records and what they mean for Champions League qualification over the last three Premi...
09/27/2013

My latest examining goal scoring records and what they mean for Champions League qualification over the last three Premier League seasons. Turns out Spurs have been far luckier than Arsenal if one goes by goal differential.

Earlier this week this blog posted an article explaining how Manchester United’s and Tottenham Hotspur’s goal differences helped explain further how the Premier League table lies to us. The article explained how point totals should vary with goal differential, how both United and Tottenham overachie...

Here's another statistical look at how the EPL table lies to us, and one way to understand what clubs' relative performa...
09/25/2013

Here's another statistical look at how the EPL table lies to us, and one way to understand what clubs' relative performance actually look like inter terms of possible table positions.

About a month ago this blog explained how luck has played a significant role in Arsenal’s last three Champions League qualifications, and how Tottenham may have been equally penalized by bad luck in not qualifying for any of the last three Champions League tournaments. That analysis raised a number...

Another weekend of MLS action, so it's time for another update as to forecasted playoff likelihoods. See who improved th...
09/24/2013

Another weekend of MLS action, so it's time for another update as to forecasted playoff likelihoods. See who improved their chances, and those who are on the outside looking in.

It is late-September, which means we’ve reached the run-in of the MLS season. Most teams only have four or five matches left to make their case for the MLS playoffs. In the East only six points separate third from seventh, while a similar gap separates third from eighth in the [...]

Here is where I explain why an absence of goals is a good thing as it keeps us on our statistical toes and makes us appr...
09/24/2013

Here is where I explain why an absence of goals is a good thing as it keeps us on our statistical toes and makes us appreciate it when superstar players or clubs achieve the rare.

It seems as if the overriding media narrative on the English Premier League is that it is now boring. Long feted for its high spending teams and relatively good performance in European competitions in the Aughts, a number of reporters and publications have turned their sights to the likes of [...]

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