http://stagtacticalgroup.com/, https://substack.com/@staginteldesk/posts?r=8a11z7&utm_campaign=profile&utm_medium=profil

STAG Tactical Group, Dickson, TN (2026)

05/23/2026

Hey everyone. Mikale here.

Quick update on where STAG stands and where Nick and I are taking it.

DAILY BRIEF:

Many of you who've been here since the beginning have probably noticed the format and method have changed a few times. We are still working to find a sustainable system that pushes out relevant information on a steady schedule.

Right now we take the long Substack article and break it into smaller posts that trickle throughout the day. Two questions for you:

Do you prefer the short posts, the two-a-day long posts, or both?
Is the weather breakdown useful, or would you rather see something more specific?

CURRENT STATE:

We are getting merch ready so we have an initial revenue stream to fund the classes. Classes are the goal. Merch is how we hope to get there.

What this means: I have been redrawing the designs by hand. 99% of our early media was AI placeholders. Convenient, but very obvious.

If you have design ideas you'd like to see, let me know. We are also looking for artists who want to create for STAG. If that is you, send me a message.

CLASSES:

We plan to offer a wide range, from total beginners to advanced shooters.

What classes would you like to see first?
Do you or anyone you know have a location we could use temporarily to host classes?

GUNSMITHING:

Nick and I are both currently going through Sonoran Desert Institute (SDI) for our gunsmithing credentials. Once we finish the course, we will be offering gunsmithing services. Target window is late 2027.

We are not rushing certifications. We are doing this the right way.

THE ASK:

We'd really appreciate it if you shared the page. Your feedback shapes what we build next, so comment, message, or tag someone who would care.

Thank you for being here. We greatly appreciate your continued support.

Stay informed. Stay ready.

Mikale
Co-Founder, STAG Tactical Group

05/21/2026

Four stories shape the next months: the dollar's global reserve share fell below 57 percent this week for the first time since 1995, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season opens in eleven days under a below-normal forecast, Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains intact despite the spring strikes, and a NATO war game exposed serious readiness gaps on the eastern flank. Here is what matters for your household.

The dollar decline is structural and years-long. BRICS nations now settle 67 percent of intra-bloc trade in local currencies, up from under 20 percent a decade ago. China processed 270 billion dollars through its domestic payment system in a single month this spring. This does not create an emergency tonight. It does shift what a dollar buys in imported goods over the next five to ten years and reduces U.S. sanction leverage in future crises. Households that hold some physical store of value,precious metals, durable goods, productive land,are positioning themselves for what comes next, not panicking about what is happening now.

The Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1. NOAA forecast 8 to 14 named storms with a 55 percent chance of below-normal activity. Below-normal does not mean inactive. One storm makes a bad season. Gulf and Southeast households have eleven days to validate their supply baseline. Water, generator fuel, first-aid supplies, insurance documents, and evacuation routes are not things you assemble during a storm watch. They are things you confirm right now.

The NATO eastern-flank war game exposed what military planners already know: sizable Russian formations positioned near the border can reach NATO territory faster than NATO can reinforce. Decision paralysis among alliance members made the problem worse. This is a years-long structural challenge with no near-term fix. It matters because it defines what deterrence actually looks like in a crisis.

The common thread across all three: preparedness windows close faster than they open. Topping off water before June 1 is cheaper than buying it during a storm watch. Holding savings in non-dollar stores of value is a multi-year hedge, not a panic move. Maintaining 30 to 90 days of essentials means you do not compete with neighbors for the last gallon when the alert goes out.

Walk your house this weekend with a notepad. Count the gallons of stored water you actually have right now. Check date stamps and rotate anything older than two years. Run your generator under household load for 30 minutes and note the fuel burn rate. Replace anything expired in your first-aid kit. Verify your insurance documents and family records are in a waterproof container you can grab in under two minutes. Write down your out-of-state contact numbers on paper. If you have a NOAA weather radio, test it. The gaps you find are your shopping list for next weekend.

The supplies you validate in May are the supplies you actually have in August.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/20/2026

The evening brief centers on four moving strategic pieces and a severe weather shift headed into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight.

Iran nuclear talks remain stalled. The Trump administration softened its position Friday, signaling acceptance of a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment if Tehran provides "real" guarantees. Iran's red line has not moved. Negotiators are haggling over suspension timelines, but the talks appear at an impasse.

Operation Southern Spear, the Caribbean strike campaign, has now killed at least 194 people across 58 U.S. strikes on vessels. The USS Gerald R. Ford is on station. On May 15, The Guardian published reporting identifying 13 strike victims and found no evidence of drug-trafficking involvement for any of those identified. The report raises hard questions about the intelligence basis for individual targeting. For Gulf and Southeast households: Navy assets normally available for hurricane response are committed there. Tropical season is six weeks out.

China has constructed a floating barricade at Scarborough Shoal, 124 nautical miles west of Luzon. Satellite imagery from mid-April shows four fishing boats, a Chinese naval or coast guard vessel, and a new floating barrier. The Philippines and the U.S. have condemned the move. The 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to Philippine Coast Guard vessels in the South China Sea. Quiet kinetic escalation that does not require a shot fired.

Russia lost 69 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the period ending May 19, a sharp shift from the previous month's 2-mile loss. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure intensified in April, hitting 21 targets. Russian crude processing fell to 4.69 million barrels a day, about 18 percent below 2021 levels.

Severe weather shifts southeast overnight. The cold front that drove Wednesday's Texas Hill Country and Mid-Atlantic activity moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley by Thursday morning. SPC Day 2 Slight Risk from northeast Texas through Arkansas into the Mid-South. Damaging wind and hail are lead threats; isolated tornadoes possible. Flash flooding remains the highest-confidence threat for saturated soils in east Texas and southwest Arkansas. Friday clears and cools.

Tennessee: Wednesday evening quiet with mid-70s and clearing skies overnight. Thursday 30-40 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms west of I-65. Friday clear and cooler, highs around 70.

Check your emergency shelter right now. Test your NOAA weather radio. Drill it now, tonight, while you can talk through it calmly.

Full archive at [stagtacticalgroup.com](http://stagtacticalgroup.com)

05/20/2026

STAG Morning Brief
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 (Issue 033)

Iran and the U.S. remain at a critical juncture. President Trump says he paused a planned strike after Gulf allies requested time for peace negotiations. Iran's latest proposal on the table, but White House officials assess it falls short of meaningful progress. Neither side has signaled movement on core demands. The window for diplomacy is narrow.

China's military has secretly trained approximately 200 Russian personnel in combat operations, with some now fighting in Ukraine. A dual-language agreement signed in Beijing last July outlined the covert training. Drone instruction was the primary focus. This direct involvement contradicts Beijing's stated neutrality in the conflict.

Federal agencies confirmed Wednesday that Iran-affiliated hackers have been disrupting U.S. water and energy infrastructure since at least March. The FBI, CISA, EPA, and NSA jointly advised that CyberAv3ngers, an IRGC-linked group, has compromised industrial control systems at water utilities and other critical facilities. They've targeted at least 75 core automation devices. The advisory recommends utilities immediately disconnect systems from public internet, change default passwords, enable multi-factor authentication, and update firmware. For your household: stored water today is insurance against tomorrow's password failure upstream.

Severe weather is moving east Wednesday. The primary threat zone is the Texas Hill Country and west-central Texas, where large hail and damaging wind are expected late afternoon. Flash flooding is a concern for saturated soils across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Scattered strong storms are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic. Travelers on I-20, I-35, and I-44 should expect heavy rain and reduced visibility Wednesday afternoon.

Tennessee clears by midday Wednesday with breezy winds and mid-70s highs. Thursday turns drier and cooler statewide. No severe threat in the Tennessee outlook through Friday.

Test your severe-weather shelter today. Check doors, windows, flashlights, radio batteries, and water supply. Verify alert methods and confirm your family knows the shelter location and fastest route. A shelter untested is a shelter that fails when the warning siren sounds.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/19/2026

STAG Evening Brief
Tuesday, May 19, 2026 (Issue 032)

President Trump announced Monday he was calling off a scheduled strike on Iran, citing "serious negotiations" toward a peace deal. Iran submitted an updated proposal yesterday, but White House officials said it falls short of what's needed. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the US is showing flexibility on frozen assets and uranium enrichment. The diplomatic window remains open, but fragile. Pakistan is mediating. Watch whether talks produce movement on frozen funds and enrichment ceilings before collapse happens again.

Three people were shot dead at the Islamic Center of San Diego Tuesday morning. Two teenage suspects, ages 17 and 19, were found dead in a vehicle near the mosque, apparently by their own hand. One suspect allegedly took a gun from his parents' house before the attack. Investigators are gathering evidence on motive and whether ideology or network played a role. The suspects' deaths eliminate the ability to interrogate intent directly. This scenario is preventable. If you own fi****ms, secure them in a location where minors cannot access them without keys you control. Know the psychological state of anyone with access to your home and your fi****ms.

The ATF released 21 proposed and final rules Tuesday following a comprehensive regulatory review. Several marquee fi***rm regulations from the prior administrations are being rescinded, including the Biden-era "engaged in the business" rule, the "stabilizing braces" rule, and the first Trump Administration's bump stock ban. Short-term NFA fi***rm transport of 365 days or less will now require no advanced notice or ATF approval. Spouses will be able to register NFA items jointly without forming a legal trust. Comment periods run 90 days. Watch federal courts for litigation that may accelerate or slow final implementation.

China is field testing four-legged robotic systems in military exercises. These dog-sized quadrupeds carry cameras, sensors, and onboard computing, and can scout ahead of infantry, clear obstacles, and haul supplies under fire. A cross-strait invasion would involve heavily defended beaches, dense urban terrain, and significant human casualties. Robotic scouts minimize personnel exposure in the opening assault phase. Taiwan is deploying High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to outlying islands, allowing strikes on mainland PRC infrastructure. This deployment complicates Beijing's ability to concentrate forces for amphibious invasion.

Severe weather is active across a broad corridor from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats, with large hail possible in the southern High Plains. Tennessee faces scattered strong to severe storms this evening, mainly damaging wind gusts and small hail. Stage your weather radio and flashlights before the storms arrive in the next six hours. Do not wait for the warning to sound to hunt for batteries and move equipment. If you own fi****ms, inspect your secure storage now to confirm locks function and keys are inaccessible.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/19/2026

The ceasefire between Iran and the US is on life support. President Trump said Monday it has a one percent chance of surviving. Tehran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz and maintained roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile. The Iranian military is conducting drills at Mahshahr Port this week, about 100 kilometers from Bubiyan Island. These drills could be preparation for resumed operations if diplomacy fails. Trump is scheduled to convene the National Security Council in the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss military options. Pakistan's Interior Minister arrived in Tehran to facilitate stalled peace talks. The next 48 hours are critical.

The ATF released a comprehensive package of 34 final and proposed rules this week. The headline: suppressors went from a $200 tax to $0. Short-term transport of NFA fi****ms for 365 days or less now requires no advanced notice and no waiting for approval. Permanent relocation still requires notification but no approval wait. Spouses can now register NFA items jointly without forming a trust, which eliminates attorney fees. Public comment periods remain open through late August. If you own NFA items, operate an FFL, or care about the regulatory direction, review the full package at [atf.gov](http://atf.gov) and submit comments during the open window. These regulatory windows close faster than they open.

Severe weather continues across the Central Plains and Midwest into Tuesday evening before shifting south and eastward. Tennessee faces scattered storms rolling in late this afternoon into the evening, with pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and a very low end chance for small hail. Middle Tennessee west of Interstate 65 and north of Interstate 40 is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Henry, Stewart, Trigg and Christian counties are under a Slight Risk. Highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s, marking the third consecutive day over 90 degrees. Flash flooding risk is elevated along the Tennessee-Kentucky border and through the Ohio Valley.

Tonight, before the storms hit, top off your fuel tanks, secure outdoor equipment, and confirm your generator runs. This is about friction, not fear. Every gallon at home before a severe weather event is a gallon you do not buy at an inflated price after grid failures. Every tool secured now is one you do not hunt for in the dark. Test your generator under load for at least ten minutes. Listen for unusual sounds, check fuel consumption, and confirm it powers your essential load. A generator that has not run in six months will fail when you need it.

Taiwan's military is deploying HIMARS to its outlying islands, which would allow Taiwan to strike mainland Chinese infrastructure and complicate PLA invasion planning. China is field testing four-legged robotic wolves, dog-sized quadrupeds equipped with cameras, sensors, and computing power. These robots can scout ahead of infantry, clear obstacles, and haul supplies under fire. The broader picture is clear: three geopolitical flashpoints are now active simultaneously. A collapsing Iran ceasefire with restored military assets, accelerated Chinese military modernization paired with Taiwan's counter-deployment of long-range systems, and intensified Russian drone warfare with historic monthly production. Domestically, severe weather threatens infrastructure and supply routes. The baseline assumption should be that diplomatic windows close faster than they appear.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/18/2026

Iran's ceasefire is on life support. President Trump posted Sunday that the clock is ticking, describing a one percent survival rate for the deal on Monday. Iranian negotiators have submitted amended terms through Pakistani mediators and are insisting on five conditions before nuclear talks begin: complete end to war, lifting all sanctions, release of frozen assets, war damage compensation, and formal recognition over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's missile stockpiles survived the February aerial campaign and sit at roughly 70 percent of pre-war capacity. Oil markets responded with Brent crude advancing 1.90 percent to 111.34 per barrel.

The ATF released 34 notices of final and proposed rulemaking this week, marking the most significant modernization of fi****ms regulations since the agency's founding. The agency is rescinding the 2023 stabilizing brace rule, which multiple federal courts found violated the Administrative Procedure Act. New rules allow short-term NFA fi***rm transport under 365 days without advance notice or waiting for approval. Permanent relocation still requires notification but no approval wait. Spouses can now register NFA items jointly without forming a trust, eliminating attorney fees. Background check validity periods are extended, and electronic forms and auto-population are now authorized.

USS Gerald R. Ford arrived in Norfolk after 327 days at sea, breaking the record for longest post-Vietnam deployment. The strike group operated across Europe, the Caribbean for Operation Southern Spear including the apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro, and the Red Sea for Operation Epic Fury. The Ford sailed nearly 80,000 miles with over 2,500 sorties and 200 tons of ordnance dropped. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth presented the strike group with the Presidential Unit Citation.

Severe weather is peaking across the central United States today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a rare Level 4 of 5 risk for intense tornadoes, giant hail, dangerous winds and flash flooding from central Kansas to northwest Missouri, southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. Sunday produced two dozen tornado reports, baseball-sized hail and wind gusts over 70 mph. Supercell thunderstorms capable of EF3 or stronger tornadoes should develop late Monday afternoon. The outbreak will shift east through Tuesday.

Ukraine recorded 242 combat engagements yesterday with Russia conducting 112 airstrikes, deploying 8,065 kamikaze drones and conducting 2,716 shelling attacks. Russian losses totaled 1,220 soldiers. Ukrainian troops report a deteriorating situation north of Pokrovsk where Russian drone superiority has nearly stopped rotations, evacuations and resupply. Ukraine's long-range strikes have reached the Moscow region 500 kilometers from the border.

For those in severe weather zones: make your shelter decision now. Stage supplies, fuel your vehicle, mentally rehearse your route. The difference between a basement ready today and scrambling when sirens sound is the difference between survival and risk. Do not wait for the warning.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/18/2026

Monday brings four pressure points stacked on top of each other.

Iran. Trump warned Sunday that Iran is running out of time, stating there will be nothing left of them if Tehran does not act. Axios reported he meets with national security advisors May 19 to discuss potential military action. The April 8 ceasefire is fraying. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and the U.S. Navy has maintained a counter-blockade since April 13. Iran still holds roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile inventory and has redefined the Strait as a broader operational area from Jask to Siri Island.

Ukraine. Ukrainian drones reached Moscow overnight in the largest attack on the capital of the war. Russia's Ministry of Defense said 1,000 drones were intercepted across more than a dozen regions in 24 hours. Debris fell on Sheremetyevo, Russia's busiest airport. Four dead, twelve wounded. President Zelensky called it justified retaliation for Russian attacks on Kyiv.

Long Island Rail Road. The LIRR enters its third day of strike. Roughly 275,000 daily commuters affected. The National Mediation Board summoned the MTA and unions to bargaining Sunday night. Shuttle bus service begins 4:30 a.m. Monday. The first LIRR strike in more than three decades.

Severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has central and northeastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska under a Moderate Risk, Level 4 of 5, for Monday afternoon and evening. Strong to intense tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) possible, hail up to 4 inches, wind gusts over 75 mph. More than 30 million people sit under the risk corridor.

If you are east of the Rockies, test your NOAA Weather Radio today. Confirm your shelter point. Charge your devices before noon CDT, because cell sites lose backup power fast.

Full brief in bio.

[staginteldesk.substack.com](http://staginteldesk.substack.com)

05/17/2026

Three separate crises are moving in parallel right now, and they create operational overlap you need to understand.

Iran's ceasefire is fractured. The negotiating team has set five preconditions for nuclear talks, and Trump assessed Monday that the deal has "one percent chance" of surviving. What matters operationally: Tehran still has roughly 70% of its pre-war missile inventory. They've repositioned assets in Pakistan and Afghanistan beyond immediate strike reach. They've restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Military drills and asset movement suggest preparation for combat resumption. Oil prices remain elevated as markets price in prolonged instability.

Ukraine just launched its largest drone strike on Russia in over a year. The attack killed at least four people and wounded a dozen. Russia claims it intercepted 556 drones. Ukraine struck an oil refinery and two oil-pumping stations in the Moscow region. The significance: this signals Ukraine's growing capability to strike deep inside Russia and maintain sustained offensive pressure. The conflict will remain dynamic despite ceasefire claims.

The ATF released 34 notices of final and proposed rulemaking today. They're rescinding several marquee regulations from the prior two administrations, including the Biden-era "stabilizing braces" rule and the first Trump administration's bump stock ban. Short-term interstate transport of NFA fi****ms (365 days or fewer) no longer requires advance approval. Married couples can now jointly register NFA items. Form 4473 updates include extended NICS windows, electronic forms, and auto-population fields. Comment periods run 90 days. This is favorable regulatory movement for law-abiding gun owners.

Severe weather is the fourth piece. A volatile stretch of severe thunderstorms is moving across the Plains and Midwest through Tuesday. Moderate Risk for northeastern Kansas Monday. Level 3 extremely critical fire threat exists in the Southern High Plains Sunday and Monday, with sustained winds 25 to 30 mph, gusts to 50 mph, and relative humidity under 10%. Potential for EF3 or stronger tornadoes, destructive hail, damaging winds, heavy rain. Tennessee appears to track north of the main severe threat but will see increasing clouds Monday with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the system.

Operationally, the convergence matters. Fuel supply chains face simultaneous pressure from global events, increased preparedness demand, weather-driven outages, and energy costs driven by Strait of Hormuz risk and refinery damage in Russia. The window for action narrows once systems stress.

Critical task: If your family or team relies on fuel for generators, vehicles, or heating, top the tank or reserve between now and midnight Monday. Fuel stations will surge with customers Sunday and Monday evening. Lines form fastest when word spreads a pump is running dry. Diesel shortages in rural areas develop within hours. Fill personal reserves, vehicle tanks, and generator fuel before the weather event triggers a run on fuel and demand spikes further. Do not wait for the gauge to drop.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

05/16/2026

The ATF released its first batch of proposed regulatory changes this week, and the implications for fi***rm owners are significant. Among them: rescission of the Biden-era "stabilizing braces" rule that reclassified millions of pistols overnight, the Trump-era bump stock ban, and the "engaged in the business" regulation. New proposals include streamlined NFA transport rules for travel under 365 days with no advance approval required, and joint spousal registration of NFA items without requiring a legal trust. The comment period is 90 days from publication. Critical note: these are proposed rules, not final. Do not assume they are done. Watch the Federal Register for final publication dates. Until then, continue current compliance practices.

Overseas, Iran confirmed it is receiving military support from Russia and China as peace negotiations continue. China is actively working to broker a deal between Tehran and Washington. Iranian officials downplayed recent U.S. strikes on oil infrastructure and signaled no intention of opening the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic importance of this waterway to global energy flow remains unchanged.

A commander of the IRGC-aligned militia Kata'ib Hezbollah was arrested by the U.S. Justice Department on charges of planning attacks on Jewish sites in the United States and Europe as retaliation for ongoing Middle East operations.

Severe weather is moving across the central plains tonight with damaging wind and large hail as the primary threat. Nebraska faces wind gusts exceeding 70 mph in some areas, with isolated tornadoes possible. Conditions improve Sunday. Tennessee remains dry through Wednesday with increasing storm chances by Thursday as a cold front approaches.

Full archive at stagtacticalgroup.com

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