28/07/2026
Here’s a puzzle I keep seeing:
A leadership team full of intelligent, experienced people makes a decision that six months later is obviously wrong.
Not just wrong, but predictably wrong.
The data was there.
The warning signs existed.
Yet they marched confidently into disaster.
Why?
The problem isn’t intelligence. It’s not even bad data.
It’s something more fundamental: the gap between mental models and reality.
Mental models are the internal maps we use to navigate complexity.
They’re necessary, we can’t process raw reality.
But here’s what makes them dangerous in organisations:
1. They’re individually constructed
2. Organizational structures amplify the gaps
3. Reality is unforgiving
4. Expertise can make it worse