05/18/2026
This week I want to take the idea of Shot Selection, and break it into a couple categories:
1) eFG% - Effective Field Goal Percentage
2) Points Per Shot (PPS)
3) Expected Point Value (EPV)
Shot selection can be a never-ending discussion as it spans both sides of the ball, the shots you choose vs the shots you try not to give the other team. It covers both the tactical, team environment as to how you are trying to create shots, and the individual choosing whether to attack space that isnât there or shoot an off balance shot from an inefficient spot on the floor.
eFG% is simply your field goal percentage but with the extra caveat of adding more value to a 3pt shot, because it is worth more than a 2pt shot. Therefore, if someone shoots only 2âs their eFG% is the exact same as their FG% but if they incorporate 3âs then it creates variance.
The formula is: eFG% = (FGM+(0.5*3PM))/FGA where FGM is Field Goal Makes, 3PM is 3pt Makes, and FGA is Field Goal Attempts.
eFG% is one of the Four Factors from Dean Oliver and the difference between your eFG% and your opponents, is certainly a key factor in winning vs losing the game. In game 7 of the Pistons vs the Cavs last night, Cleveland as a team made 11 3âs and had an eFG% of 57.1% to Detroitâs eFG% of 42.4% a difference of 14.7%
Points Per Shot (PPS) is a logical next step in this shot selection discussion as it an accounting of how many points someone scores per shot attempt. It inherently shows the value of getting to the foul line, as you are scoring points without being âchargedâ a shot attempt.
For instance, if someone scores 14 pts on 5/15 shooting made up of: 15 Field Goal Attempts (FGA), 4 Field Goal Makes (2FGM) that are twos, goes 1/3 from the 3pt line (3PM), while shooting 3/6 from the Foul Line. Their Points Per Shot = 14/15 = 0.93. --- Their eFG% would = (5 + (0.5*1))/15 = 36.67%
For E-L-I-T-E context, the newly named 2x MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in Points Per Shot this season (for high volume players) at 1.6 and had an eFG% of 60.2%. Wildly efficient shooting numbers.
Expected Point Value (EPV) is in the same ballpark as both the previously described metrics, but it is more of a look ahead and review tool, to see how you shot the ball, individually and as a team, relative to how the stats say you âshouldâ have shot it on average.
EPV is just your shooting percentage multiplied by the point value of the shot. I use it, and believe it is well used in the sense of breaking the court down into different areas to evaluate. We call shots at the rim anything within 8ft of the basket. For us, this year we looked at Rim, Midrange, and 3pt areas. So, if you take that you can see what you shoot from each (again as a team and individually) region on the floor. You could also further break this down into Open vs Contested or on the Catch vs Off Dribble shots for a more detailed look. Letâs keep it relatively simple for the example â take a team that up a given point in the season shoots 55% at the rim, 35% in the midrange, and 35% from the 3pt line.
The Expected point value would be:
Rim = 55% x 2 = 1.1
Midrange = 35% x 2 =0.7
3pt Line = 35% x 3 = 1.05.
They are great numbers to dig into as they speak clearly about what shots your team should look for and try to avoid letting the other team have. Imagine for instance being able to chase someone off the 3pt line in a long closeout (maybe they individually are 1.35 EPV on open catch and shoot 3âs), to make them shoot a contested 2pt off the dribble (where they shoot it at 0.7 EPV).
The value of these types of metrics goes beyond just measuring game stats, and can further inform how you set up your small-sided games in practice, create your principles of play/game model, and develop your season plan. One easy example to employ in practice would be to give more points for a shot that you value more. Maybe an open 3pt shot is worth 6pts and an off balance one-foot shot is worth 1, changing point values in practice can help to create some of the learning and behaviours you are looking for under the bright lights!
