03/28/2025
Hopefully this forecast is not going to be the outcome, but if it is please stay safe everyone. Looks like we’re in for a doozy!
If we’re ever wrong about a forecast, please, please let it be this one.
It’s rare that model data leaves us speechless, but this is one of those times. We were hoping the models would shift by now so we wouldn’t have to post this… but instead, they’ve only strengthened the freezing rain threat. Now, high-resolution models are painting an increasingly grim picture for Central and Eastern Ontario.
This is a very serious situation. Widespread power outages are likely, and in the hardest-hit areas, they could last for days or even weeks. Significant ice accumulation will also cause major damage to trees and infrastructure.
One model in particular, the HRRR, is likely overestimating the totals, but it’s showing freezing rain accumulations nearing 100mm in some areas. Even a quarter of that would be devastating—let alone if it comes anywhere close to verifying.
At this point, the regions most at risk appear to be Muskoka, Parry Sound, Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, and Kingston. It starts this evening and continues throughout the weekend.
However, some of the latest model runs are now shifting the freezing rain threat into parts of the GTA, particularly late Saturday into Sunday morning.
As always, forecasting freezing rain is extremely difficult because it depends on a very precise temperature setup. If the models are off by just a degree or two, we could be looking at more ice pellets or even just rain instead.
Let’s hope they’re wrong. We want nothing more than for this to bust and for our forecast to completely miss the mark.
Currently working on a detailed accumulation forecast based on the latest morning data—apologies for the delay! We want to ensure you’re getting the most accurate information, especially with some lingering model disagreements.
- Brennen
