The AFL Premiership Window

25/05/2026

The last premiership window before the byes is here and its another big one.
We still have only 2 teams in the window but a new addition, Geelong. Gold Coast have dropped out. So approaching the half way mark of the year we only have two that can win it according to the window. But also there has been some big movement from other teams.

Geelong are obviously big movers. Their attack has been good all year but their defence has been the issue and its slowly improved to allow them to enter the window. Despite a loss Sydney are still in prime position so no concerns there.

Brisbane have been the big mover and not in a good way. This is why you need to listen to the window. For weeks we have been questioning Brisbanes defence. And this round it has been proven conceding a ridiculous 166 points. While you would never quite right them off this has put them in a position in the window that is going to be hard to come back from. As i have said all season the longer it goes the harder it is to move into the window. Their defence is coming from a long way back and its going to be very hard to get back in the window from there. Massive concern.

Gold Coast as said earlier have slipped. They have a tough run coming up and i will call it now they will not get back into the window. They just dont win enough of the big games and lose ones they should win.

Hawthorn is still just chugging along nicely. Just hovering around the window. They play StKilda on Thursday which will be a fascinating contest. Is Hawthorn a team just pacing themselves and looking to hit their straps when it counts. They are a dangerous team and are a big watch.

Fremantle despite being atop the ladder still arent in the window. They kicked over 100 again which is good. They will enter the window at some stage. And if they get home finals look out. They are sitting very nicely.

GWS have been the big mover. Obviously after a huge win. Their defence is ok and are a littl big of a watch. We know they have the talent but have had injuries. Massive clash for them this week against Melbourne will see if this weeks win was a one off or their form is genuine. Speaking of Melbourne yes they are going well but unless their defence improves they wont press for a premiership.

Adelaide are the other watch for me. Yes they lost to Hawthorn but their profile is ok especially defensively. Their draw doesnt get any easier post bye but they are a loose watch. Can they hit form in the back end of the year when it counts.

So as flagged last week the premiership race is down to Sydney, Geelong, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Brisbane. And that doesnt change. Brisbane however are making it harder for themselves, so will it be down to 4 soon. We will see how it all looks after the byes as the premiership window takes a short break for the bye rounds.

This is where you hear it all first. The tv footy shows pretty much use what you are hearing here first a week or 2 early. And they know why because the window doesnt lie.

18/05/2026

ROUND 10 PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Who wants to win the flag?
Well as it stands we still have only 2 teams in the all important window. Sydney and Gold Coast. Just hovering outside are Geelong and Fremantle. They are the 4 main contenders as we speak according to the window.

Just outside the window we have Brisbane who despite some indifferent for are still positioned in an ok spot. But as flagged last week, their defence is a watch. Just conceding to many points. Another 117 conceded against Geelong is not a good sign. It needs to be fixed. As stated last week defence is the key to a flag. I went into detail on Hawthorns defence or lack thereof last week. It has shown up again conceding 120 points to Melbourne. I have said it before and i will say it again, defence wins premierships. And at the moment Hawthorn, Brisbaneand to a lesser extent Melbourne their defence is costing them a shot at the flag. Melbourne are the hype team of the moment and rightly so, they are great to watch. But any talk of premierships is ill informed. Their defence just doesnt stack up at the moment. For now.

As flagged last week Freo are the big watch. The question was can they kick a score .Even though it was against a hapless essendon they still scored 104 which helps their window position. They are positioning themselves nicely. for a tilt. They next face Stkilda who are a good defeensive side, ranked 6. They are at home and this could frank their offensive abilities. We will see.

The big fallers of this week have been North and the Bulldogs. Falling more away from the window. Their seasons are not flag worthy. Hawthorn are the big watch for this week. A few injuries has hurt and they have Adelaide at home who although are not quite near the window are on the improve and are looking for a scalp. With the window once you fall away from it the further the season goes the harder it is to get back into it. They have a tricky draw over the next few weeks and its highly possible come the bye their premiership ambitions may be gone. Its a BIG watch.

Geelong is positioning themselves nicely after a great win over Brisbane. They have a had a tough draw to start the year having played 9 of the top 12 teams on the ladder thus far. not including themselves and have Sydney this week. They are in a great position for another tilt. Their defence is slowly improving.

We do like to say the window doesnt lie. If you watch games you can see it come true. Watching Collingwood v sydney at quarter time. Pies fans would have be a little excited at quarter time. 5 goals to 1. But only 5 goals from 3 quarters isnt good enough after that. As the window has been saying. Hawthorn the same. They have a s**t defence. Make no bones about it. Game on the line at 3/4 time and bang they concede 6 goals in the last quarter. The window is correct.

Just a little watch and that is Stkilda. They have moved to a nice little position in the window. But its on the back of games against Richmond, Carlton, West Coast and a blip against Gold Coast. They are a watch. Freo away will be the ultimate test for them. I'm saying a false window dawn. But they are trending ok. Not for a flag, but for improvment.

We said a couple of weeks ago the final 8 is pretty much set. But is who can win the flag almost set as well?
At the minute Sydney are clearly there. As are Gold Coast. You would say Geelong and Fremantle the other two. And for mine Brisbane. You just cant right them off just yet. Hawthorn for mine arent there. So is it a race in 5? My opinion Gold Coast arent quite there yet. So is it down to 4? Time will tell. But the thing we do know is, the window doesnt lie.

11/05/2026

ROUND 9 PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Well well well only 2 teams in the window for now. Sydney as per usual have set up camp in there. But the Gold Coast with a great defensive performance holding Stkilda to 60 points has got them in the window. 6th on the ladder it has been a sneaky build from them. Are they coming? They are in a good spot.

Geelong has been the other big mover after a complete demolition of Collingwood. To give it some context they are 3 points against from being in the window. Two massive games coming up vs Brisbane away and Sydney at home will be a real litmus test for them. Speaking of Brisbane sometimes a win can put you further away from the window. Letting a hapless Carlton score 89 points against has been the issue. But context again they are only 3 goals against outside the window. So nothing to worry about as such they will be therabouts when the whips are cracking but it shows what one game to do.

Hawthorn is the worry. Again their inability to defend is costing them. The last quarter saw Freo pile on the goals. Unless the Hawks can fix this defensive issue they are going to struggle to be in a position to win the flag. An injury to Barrass doesnt help but their defenders are lauded. Runners like Impey and Amos, the captain in Sicily, All Australian Battle so called hard man Hardwick. All so called good players but as a collective in a defence arent getting the job done for their team. And it could cost them a shot at the flag.

Freo are the big watch. As flagged last week. they had kicked 100+ points two weeks in a row. Only 88 this week and had 52 at 3/4 time .Yes their last quarter yielded 5 goals and they were exciting to watch but this is their issue. Last quarter aside their scoring isnt enough yet. Context is they are about 8 goals off and that a bit of a gap. Playing good football but just not quite there yet offensively.

StKilda and North while not threatening the window at all they are in very nice development positions. Their fans would be happy with their progress. Not quite there yet but the trend is good . As is the trend with Melbourne and Port Adelaide. Port appear to be dropping away a little but Melbourne keep winning the games they should. Massive test for them this week vs Hawthorn. Should be a cracker. Melbourne are great offensively and as said earlier Hawthorn cant defend. Should be an interesting watch.

Adelaide are the other one to watch. Trending ok but what should have been an easy kill against Richmond wasnt. Defensively they are ok but scoring is the issue. Unfortunately just doesnt look like a year they will contend for a flag. A good win away for the Bulldogs was good for them but doesnt improve their window position. So for these two teams another unsuccessful year when expectations were high early seem like happening.

So the wash up for mine is defence. A lot of the big boys. Sydney, Brisbane, Geelong,Hawthorn and Gold Coast seem to have their attack in order but for a number of them its their defence that needs work. And as they say defence win premierships. And as we say here the window doesn't lie.

04/05/2026

ROUND 8 PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Well at round 8 is generally the time when the top 8 starts to get settled. And at the end of this post i will predict the final top 8 for the year with 88% accuracy. Make of that what you will. Also not fussed about 9 and 10 place.

Well we only have 2 teams now in the window with the exit of North. We have Sydney who are camped in there and the big dogs Brisbane enter the fray. Hawthorn are lurking very nicely despite a draw. As it stands they are the big 3 at the moment. Make no mistake.

Going on ladder position Fremantle sit pretty in second spot. Going along very nicely and playing good footy. But in the end the only thing that matters is can you win the flag. At the moment they cant. As flagged for a number of weeks they arent scoring enough. But in saying that they sit 33 points for from being in the window. Its not a lot. They have kicked over 100 the last two weeks so they are trending in the right direction. They are a big watch and are coming. Massive game vs Hawthorn this week. This will see if they are fair dinkum or not.

Geelong and Gold Coast are just hovering nicely. Neither team is setting the world on fire but they are in a spot where they can enter the window at some point. Its a good spot to be in. Just like Brisbane last year.

StKilda is the new watch team. Its taken 8 rounds but they have positioned themselves nicely. I did say earlier in the season they were a nothing team, just hovering in mediocrity But lets hold fire on them. They beat West Coast and Carlton. Nothing special. Did well vs Adelaide who arent going great and beat Port. So no big scalps as yet. But an improved effort. A bit like North. So like them are they one game off slipping away from the window. A real test this week vs the Suns.

Of the rest Melborne and Port Adelaide sit in the same intersting sport as last week. One attacking one defending. Both sets of supporters should be happy with what the new coaches are showing thus far. Not premiership material but going ok.

Adelaide and the Bulldogs just seem to be in no mans land a bit. Ok teams not having great seasons. Just not in a position where they will challenge for flag, or finals for that matter.

Now onto Collingwood. Who yes are playing good football. And scoring a bit better. But not enough. I will keep saying it. They cannot win the flag. They still arent scoring enough. To give it some context. They are 125 points of the 6th ranked team offensively. Thats the sort of amount they need to make up and enter the window to win the flag, possibly. Its just a lot to make up. They have been ranked in that spot the last 6 weeks. So no improvement in that rank. And i cant see it happening.

So now onto my top 8 prediction. This isnt in order at all just the teams that will play finals this year. Ignoring the wildcard.
The finals teams for 2026 are.
Sydney
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Geelong
Gold Coast
Fremantle
Collingwood
Melbourne

For mine there could be one change to those 8 with Melbourne the most vulnerable. And possibly Collingwood.

So there it is. Is the top 8 set? Almost.
From that top 8 who can win the flag is what this is all about.
At the moment its Sydney and Brisbane. It will change.
But what we do know is the window doesnt lie.

26/04/2026

ROUND 7 Premiership Window Update
Another big week with some big moves. As we close in on the round 8 barrier.

We now have 3 teams in the window. North, Hawthorn and Sydney. Its fair to say Sydney and Hawthorn are two form teams in it and rightly take their positions in the window. Are they the two sure things at the moment? North despite a loss still hang in there. Its an odd one but the numbers dont lie.

The massive move it Stkilda. A huge win over West Coast gives them a big bump up the window. Are they on the move. Carlton next week. They are going to be an interesting watch.

The big fall has been the Bulldogs. Ravage by injury they have plummeted from contention and its hard to see them getting back.

Despite a very disappointing loss where it appears Geelong may have taken the handbags from the past on as carry on luggage on the trip to Port Adelaide. Even though it was a very poor performance they still sit in an ok position window wise. Just outside it.

Fremantle are the interesting one. Form would say they are one of the best in it. Playing so really good football. But at the end of the day and as flagged last week, they just arent scoring enough. 103 points this week is good but it was only Carlton. Their offence is a watch.

Collingwood are still proving a false dawn. Yes a cojple of good wins along with high scores which has been their weakness. But it has been against Essendon and Carlton so lets not get ahead of the curve here. Massive test this week vs Hawthorn. This will see them better. But for mine still to far from the window to threaten a flag.

As flagged last week Port Adelaide have been the surprise. Really pushed the from team Hawthorn and did a number on Geelong. They sit in a nice spot near the window. I dont think anyone has them pushing for a flag or to get near the window but their scoring profile is very nice. A big watch for that 9/10 position. Just need to score more.

Adelaide are also the big losers this week. A big loss to Brisbane has them well away from the window. Strong doubts now if they can get to the window. While finals may not be out of the question that premiership hope is going to be really hard from here.

Melbourne are an interesting one. Like Port they have a new coach and are playing a great brand of football. But it appears the two new coaches are at the opposite end of how they want to play. Port are sound defensively and are a dour side but Melbourne on the other hand are all out attack and the window shows that difference. Two different ways of doing, but both methods have them in a good position and winning games. But you cant have one without the other and be in the window. Positive for both teams but only halfway there Melbourne another 9/10 possibility.

Brisbane and Gold Coast with a win and a loss hold. One seems on the down the other on the up but both in the same window area. Both will be an interesting watch. I dont think you will ever discount Brisbane and their move towards the window will come. Suns on the other its hard to tell which way they will go. Either way both teams need to improve defensively.

Of the rest its the usuals in the lower reaches of the window where it will be a struggle.

So the wash up of this is so interesting. Its such an open season. You could say Sydney and Hawthorn at the moment are a clear 1 and 2 best in it. After that throw a blanket. Consistency is not finding a lot of the other teams. The ladder and window for that matter is still draw effected. But after anther week we will be able to know more. I would even suggest by next week i will be able to give an almost definitive top 10. For the end of the year. With the only possibility of at most 1-2 changes. If any. So next weeks window will be HUGE. Because as we always say, the window never lies.

20/04/2026

Welcome to the round 6 edition of the premiership window. After a big where where it was alleged that AFL 360 last Monday may have used this page as reference on their show. Funny when what i said here during the day was repeated nearly verbatim that night. So hello 360 if your're reading.

Anyway onto matters window. In quite an unexpected result we have North Melbourne in the premiership window. Extraordinary. Aside from playing Brisbane they have had as easy draw as you could possibly have. But you have to give it to them, they seem to be playing the right way. Sydney remain the dominant team at the moment still Sitting pretty in the window in pole position.

The big mover this week is Geelong. After a big win over the Bulldogs they move into a very nice position. Their concern has been their defence but to only concede 56 points was a good result. On the flip side the result has really hurt the Bulldogs slipping badly. With all their injuries will they be able to make it back?

Despite a win the Gold Coast slipped. Their issue is their defence. Conceding 110 points to the Bombers isnt ideal. Thats the watch for them, they are supposed to be on the rise but until they can stop teams scoring against them the wont be winning a flag. Freo are really interesting. The best defensive team in it. But just not quite scoring enough. They look dangerous though and i suspect they will enter the window soon enough. They are a big watch for mine.

Hawthorn sits in the same area after a close win but again the watch on them is their defence. Perhaps luck to win they are letting to many points in and need to sort it out. Brisbane despite a loss still sit in an ok position, but the concern is their defence. They conceded over 100 points and need to address this. Simular to Hawthorn. Melbourne is in the same boat. Scoring well but conceding to many. Maybe their plan is to just go for it in Kings first year and worry about the defence as they go. They are good to watch but their daring style can bite them on the bum the other way.

Port Adelaide and Adelaide are interesting ones. Both seem to be defending well but not quite hitting the scoreboard enough. The last 2 games Adelaide have kicked 100 plus points so they are trending in the right direction. As for Port many tipped a poor year but despite an easy draw early they are going ok. They are a watch as their draw toughens up over the next few weeks, can they keep teams to low scores in that period will be the test.

Of the rest clearly not teams that will win the flag. Eagles, Richmond, Carlton, Essendon, GWS, StKilda will all not make finals nor win the flag. Its how the improve for them. Collingwood is the outlier. A very good defensive team and credit to them they kicked a better score this week. Albeit against Carlton who lets be honest the last quarter flurry was really a one man show so lets not get to excited about it. They wont win the flag.

So there is is for another week. I still think the post round 8 is the real sweet spot for assessment. After that round its harder to make a big move. Sydney still are the best in it. Then throw a blanket over Geelong, Hawthorn, Gold Coast and Brisbane. Probably include Freo in that mix to. So is 6 of the top 8 nearly set? It will be interesting so see who pops up. Adelaide i suspect will make a charge to become that 7th team. Then its wide open for the last 3. Will it be North, Bulldogs and even Melbourne. Well shall see. Because as you know, the window never lies.

13/04/2026

FOX Footy

Round 5 Premiership Window update
Its a massive window this week. In almost never seen before scenes we only have 2 teams in the premiership window. Who wants to win it?

Sydney are sitting pretty in A1 positions at the money and Gold Coast is the only other team in the window currently.

Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs have fallen out A low scoring game has cost the dockers and a loss for the Dogs has cost them
Hawthorn are possibly the form team in the comp at the moment but as flagged last week their defence is the issue. Its weird everyone seems to be lauding the likes of Sicily, Barrass, Battle et al but the reality is they sit 10th for points against and unless they fix that theres no flag heading their way.

The Bulldogs and Brisbane still sit in a ok position along with Hawthorn. All 3 have defensive issues. But at this point with the draw playing a factor this isnt a massive concern for either team as yet.

The big issue for perennial finalist Geelong is their defence. Points for is ok but their defence is a problem. Admittedly they have had a tough draw and will be tougher this week against the Dogs so this really is a watch. Its an area they must improve if they are to contend again.

Port Adelaide sit in a good spot but their draw has been soft. The next month will test and likely see them fall.

A lot of talk of Flagmantle but unless they can kick a score their wont be a flag heading their way. Really poor scoring v the Pies has hurt them. Vs West Coast this week will be very interesting to see if they can correct this.

Adelaide are the other concern. A win but they just need to score more. They did this week. Which is positive. A home game v Stkilda will be telling. They need to hit the scoreboard.

As flagged last week Collingwood pretty much have a forward line that doesnt excist. Its staggering this has got worse when it was a known issue last year. They are gone.

Of the rest GWS and Stkilda still sitting in no mans land and the bottom 4 of Carlton, Essendon, West Coast and Richmond remain there.

So as it stands we have the Swans head and shoulders above everyone at the moment. I still think by round 8 we will have possibly 7 of the top 8 almost set. So its an important next 3 weeks to improve in the area you need to. Once we get to that point making up ground in either attack or defence becomes harder.

But we have Sydney, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Brisbane as the best placed for mine at the minute.

Its still early but always remember the window doesn't lie.

13/04/2026

Round 5 Premiership Window update
Its a massive window this week. In almost never seen before scenes we only have 2 teams in the premiership window. Who wants to win it?

Sydney are sitting pretty in A1 positions at the money and Gold Coast is the only other team in the window currently.

Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs have fallen out A low scoring game has cost the dockers and a loss for the Dogs has cost them
Hawthorn are possibly the form team in the comp at the moment but as flagged last week their defence is the issue. Its weird everyone seems to be lauding the likes of Sicily, Barrass, Battle et al but the reality is they sit 10th for points against and unless they fix that theres no flag heading their way.

The Bulldogs and Brisbane still sit in a ok position along with Hawthorn. All 3 have defensive issues. But at this point with the draw playing a factor this isnt a massive concern for either team as yet.

The big issue for perennial finalist Geelong is their defence. Points for is ok but their defence is a problem. Admittedly they have had a tough draw and will be tougher this week against the Dogs so this really is a watch. Its an area they must improve if they are to contend again.

Port Adelaide sit in a good spot but their draw has been soft. The next month will test and likely see them fall.

A lot of talk of Flagmantle but unless they can kick a score their wont be a flag heading their way. Really poor scoring v the Pies has hurt them. Vs West Coast this week will be very interesting to see if they can correct this.

Adelaide are the other concern. A win but they just need to score more. They did this week. Which is positive. A home game v Stkilda will be telling. They need to hit the scoreboard.

As flagged last week Collingwood pretty much have a forward line that doesnt excist. Its staggering this has got worse when it was a known issue last year. They are gone.

Of the rest GWS and Stkilda still sitting in no mans land and the bottom 4 of Carlton, Essendon, West Coast and Richmond remain there.

So as it stands we have the Swans head and shoulders above everyone at the moment. I still think by round 8 we will have possibly 7 of the top 8 almost set. So its an important next 3 weeks to improve in the area you need to. Once we get to that point making up ground in either attack or defence becomes harder.

But we have Sydney, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Bulldogs, Brisbane as the best placed for mine at the minute.

Its still early but always remember the window doesn't lie.

11/04/2026

This is why the window doesn’t lie. As flagged earlier in the week Collingwoods issue is their inability to kick a score. It was their issue last year. And it is again. I get it was a little wet. But kicking 5 goals isn’t going to win you a flag. That’s why they won’t be in the window.

07/04/2026

Welcome to the first Premiership Window of season 2026. Is it a bit early for this yes it is but if i look back at the same time last year window 6 of the eventual 8 finalists where in the vicinity of the window. I'm not sure its as clear cut this year. There are a clear 4 teams in the window currently. Sydney, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and Fremantle. No real surprises there they currently occupy the top 4 spots on the ladder.

For mine the 2 surprises are Brisbane and Hawthorn. Brisbane despite a 2 and 2 record are generally accepted as the premiership favorites and rightly so. They hover just outside the window and aren't a concern. Hawthorn on the other hand sit 3 and 1 but their big concern and i will flag this early is their defence. Currently ranked 11 in most points against. Its a concern they will need to fix in the next 3-4 weeks. As the longer the season goes the harder it becomes to make a big jump in the rankings. You need to act early

The two big movers early are Port Adelaide and North Melbourne. While most people would admit not really premiership contenders or even finals for that matter their early season window position is encouraging. Even despite Ports irregular form.

Adelaide is a big concern. Their defence stands up so far. But their attacking strength is a worry. Last year they were great in that area, this year a rank of 12 in points for is a worry. They have the big 3 tall forwards down there but they arent producing. A big concern for a team with premiership ambitions.

The other big one is Collingwood. All last year their issue was their inability to score and its still the problem. Ranked 14 in points for. They dont see to have learned and improved in that area. Maybe not keeping their best forward in Mihocek wasnt a great moven and Hill not available. I'll make the call now Collingwood cant win the flag. Their attack is too poor once again and they just wont get in the window. Theres the big call early.

Geelong is an early concern. A tough early draw could be a factor but they sit way out the window at the moment. With both attack and defence a concern, this is a big watch over the next month. They just arent quite there at the moment. Stkilda as per last year just seem to be sitting on no mans land. Not great in either attack or defence. Maybe the spending spree just wont work.

Of the rest, its the usuals. Carlton, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon that occupy the lower ebbs of the window and will most likely stay there. Joining them there is the injury hit GWS. A bit of a surprise but they will struggle from that spot.

So thats the first window. We have 4 in it. Generally thats the amount in there, occasionally theres 5 but 4 are starting to separate themselves already.

It is early and the draw can effect things this time of year but give it another 4 games and things will really shape up. But for now its interesting, some teams with a lot of work to do this early if they want to be in contention.

This isnt who will win the flag, its who can win the flag.

And always remember, the window doesn't. lie.